Good morning everyone! Overall, we are looking at a continuation of a nice stretch of days ahead of us as split flow will keep the area on the drier side with only weak disturbances. The eastern half of the region is waking up this morning to generally clear skies, but we are noting some high level clouds streaming into the western Dakotas. This is due to a dry cold front that is lifting into the region which is expected to progress through the Dakotas into MN into the afternoon and evening hours. It will be a quick-moving system, so it should be exiting the region tonight. However, precipitation is very unlikely with this cold front as plentiful dry air in the low-levels will inhibit rainfall potential. The greatest risk with the cold front passage will be mid-high level clouds, but areas of sunshine are still anticipated through the duration of the day. The second graphic below shows the simulation of cloud cover (blue shading) through midnight tonight. In general, a mix of sun and clouds is likely. We can’t rule out some of the clouds, mainly in ND into northern MN spitting out a few sprinkles, but even these areas it is still unlikely.
This is also discussed in the 4-panels at the end of the post, but we are expecting gusty winds behind the cold front today into tonight (particularly in the Dakotas). Wind gusts of 30-40mph will be likely during this timeframe with isolated gusts up to 45mph possible. Northern MN can also see some breezy conditions exceeding 30mph at times. However, as we progress into Sunday morning, the winds will be gradually starting a weakening trend, but can still note gusts up to 30mph at times during the day Sunday.
There will be another weak disturbance that follows along the tail-end of the dry cold front tonight into Sunday morning across SD and southern MN. As is the case with today’s system, substantial dry air in the low-levels will prevent precipitation and the most we will note will be mid-high level clouds. This can be observed with the satellite loop (second graphic) as the system produces scattered mid-high level clouds across the aforementioned areas before exiting Sunday afternoon. After that time, a mix of sun and clouds will dominate the region that will persist into Monday as well.
Freezing fog risks remain quite low tonight into Sunday morning due to stronger winds across the area. However, we can’t rule out the isolated risk for it in southeastern SD and far southwestern MN. A better chance for patchy freezing fog will come Sunday night into Monday morning (see graphic below) as winds decrease and high pressure remains settled overhead. The areas at risk for this patchy freezing fog include portions of SD, southwestern MN and northeastern ND. Temperatures in these areas will fall below freezing Sunday night, so a few slick spots will be possible. Most of the fog will erode mid-morning, but a few areas may linger even towards the noon hour.
Here’s a look at 7-day precipitation from the GFS Parallel: Due to the northern displaced jet, an overall quiet pattern is likely to persist through this timespan with only weak disturbances likely. We’ll need to watch Tuesday night into Wednesday for the chance of scattered light rain showers with the possibility of light snow showers on the northern periphery in northern MN, but current indications keep it relatively weak at this time.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: As we continue with the period of moderation, temperatures will end up above average for December standards. The vast majority in the Dakotas today will warm into the 40s and 50s, with a few 30 degree readings holding on in northeastern ND due to snow cover. Some may not make it out of the 30s in southeastern MN as well. Warmer overnight lows (relative to December standards) are expected across the region into Sunday morning with temperatures in the 20s. It will be a slightly cooler day Sunday due to the passage of the dry cold front, but still temperatures will warm into the 40s in SD with most in ND and MN staying in the 30s. Monday morning lows in the teens are likely in northern MN and northeastern ND.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Winds will be quite gusty today, especially in ND, as a dry cold front works through the region. Wind gusts on the order of 30-40mph will be common before gradually fading in intensity Sunday morning. However, gusts between 25-30mph will be possible Sunday morning in eastern ND into northern MN.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls: We continue our period of moderation through this timeframe.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!