Good morning everyone! We continue to track wrap-around rains impacting the southeastern portions of MO as of 7:50am CST. A few brief periods of light freezing rain may mix in along the I-44 corridor this morning, but the threat remains rather minimal at this time as temperatures will slowly rise and the rain departs to the east. The activity we are observing remains associated with an upper-level low pressure system that is slowly working eastward, but will supply additional moisture to the southeastern portions of MO through early afternoon before gradually exiting. Locations north of the I-44 corridor and the remainder of the Central Plains will remain dry.
Here’s an updated synopsis of what to expect progressing through the day: The source of the dreariness and overall wet Saturday in southeastern MO is the result of an upper-level low remaining unattached to the overall upper-air pattern. The northern jet stream will remain well off to the north in southern Canada and with this system not being picked up by the northerly jet, it will allow for the slow movement eastward. As a result of this, periods of rain will continue to lift through southeastern MO through early afternoon before it starts to push east and brings an end to the rains.
Simulated radar through 9pm CST this evening: As the low pressure system continues its progression eastward today, the wrap-around rains in southeastern MO will slowly come to an end west to east. Rain coverage and intensity will dwindle through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon hours, with the bulk of the rain activity exiting to the east of MO by 4pm CST today. However, a few light showers/drizzle will likely hang around after this time through the early evening hours. Virtually all precipitation will have either faded or exited to the east by 9pm CST. Elsewhere, dry weather will prevail with a nice weekend on tap!
Total additional rainfall through 9pm CST this evening: An additional 0.1-0.4″ of rain is expected in southeastern MO (south of the I-44 corridor) before all is set and done this afternoon and evening. A majority of the rains at this point in time will be on the lighter side. North of the I-44 corridor, precipitation is not expected.
As previously stated, elsewhere will remain on the drier side as surface high pressure over the region will help to suppress any rain risks. However, there will be pieces of upper-level energy that ride the upper-air flow through the region (as shown in the first graphic): One progressing through the region this evening through Sunday morning and another that follows on the tail-end during the day Sunday into early Sunday night. With the high pressure overhead, there is plentiful amounts of dry air at the surface that will hinder any form of precipitation from reaching the surface. The only thing these two waves of weak energy will do is likely bring a stripe of clouds that works through the region (as shown in the second graphic) this weekend. If you’re wanting sunshine you will be in luck as most of the weekend will feature large amounts of it, with the exception being southeastern MO today and the scattered coverage of clouds working through the region in association with these waves.
There is the chance for some patchy freezing fog to redevelop this evening and especially overnight in NE and western IA, but will most likely remain confined to low-lying locations and any areas that still have snow cover on the ground. A few slick spots can’t be ruled out in areas that develop patchy fog as temperatures will be below freezing. There will be a better risk for patchy freezing fog Sunday night into Monday morning (shown below), but once again will likely stay mostly confined to low-lying locations in NE, KS and IA. The best chance for freezing fog will be in western IA. Slick spots will be possible in areas that develop fog once again Sunday night into Monday morning.
Check out the total precipitation (first image) over the next 7 days…still eyeing an unusually quiet pattern for most in NE and KS due to the split flow pattern the Central US is experiencing right now. After the current storm system exits southeastern MO today, we won’t find another opportunity for shower activity until Tuesday night, but more likely Wednesday in MO and IA. This upcoming system likely will exit the region Friday. The second image below reveals 7-day precipitation anomaly which shows most in NE, KS and northwestern IA staying far below average in the precipitation department while southern MO will stay closer to average due to these storm systems.
High temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures in the 50s will be prevalent in MO and especially KS while cooler temps in the 40s are more likely further north in portions of NE and IA. Remaining snow cover in northern IA may hinder highs from reaching above 40ºF. Sunday will feature similar characteristics to Saturday as the same areas will have roughly the same temperatures, though MO will be slightly warmer.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Sunday morning lows will remain below freezing across a majority of the area with even cooler temperatures working into the region Monday morning. Monday morning lows will fall well into the 20s with even some teens still showing up in areas that still have snow cover (northern IA). Warmer air will push back into KS and NE Tuesday morning where temperatures may not fall below freezing.
Wind forecast over the next four days: We’re generally looking at lighter winds through this period with gusts at times up to 20mph. Sunday will have the calmest winds as a dome of high pressure sits overhead.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Our moderation period continues through this timeframe.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!