Good afternoon everyone! Areas of light to moderate rains are lifting northward through the southern half of MO and southeastern KS while isolated patches of light showers and drizzle can be noted in northern MO into eastern IA as of 3:40pm CST. This activity is associated with an upper-level low pressure system that will slowly work eastward over the coming days, but not without supplying an ample moisture stream in the area, particularly in MO heading into Friday and Saturday. Areas off to the west in western IA and the remainder of KS will largely remain unaffected by this system and remain on the drier side.
High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across south-central KS, but these will be coming to an end this evening as the strong winds that prompted their issuance start to gradually die down. However, we still will have gusty winds in these areas upwards of 30-40mph through the nighttimes hours. Gustier winds will work into MO tonight as well and especially during the day Friday, but should remain below Wind Advisory Criteria.
Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect progressing through the remainder of the week into the weekend: The source of the dreariness and overall wet timespan for states such as MO through this duration is the result of an upper-level low remaining unattached to the overall upper-air pattern. The northern jet stream will remain well to the north across southern Canada and with this system not riding this feature, it will allow for the slow movement eastward. As a result of this, periods of light to moderate rain will lift through MO into Saturday before it starts to push east and brings an end to the rains west to east.
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A pesky, cut-off upper-level low (system that is not attached to any branch of the jet stream) will slowly meander ENE through Saturday and bring periods of rain on its northern periphery to southeastern portions of the area, especially along and south of the I-44 corridor.
Another threat to contend with will come tonight into Friday morning in the form of freezing fog across north-central/northeastern IA. This fog could be dense in a few spots and with temperatures below freezing, could lead to a few slick spots on the roadways (something to keep in mind). The fog will be slow to burn off Friday morning and some areas could continue freezing fog risks even into early afternoon.
During the day Friday, low pressure (blue area) will continue to bring showery weather across the southeast half of MO while higher pressure (orange/red) will build across IA and KS bringing dry weather. The areas under high pressure will likely experience a great deal of sunshine working back into the area while clouds and precipitation remain likely in MO. As previously discussed, this system will finally kick east of MO Saturday afternoon.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST Friday: Areas of light showers and drizzle will continue across southern and eastern IA before gradually coming to an end around midnight tonight. Some brief freezing rain mixing in will be possible. Elsewhere, periods of rain will lift northward through MO and southeastern KS with activity dwindling in coverage in southeastern KS around the same time as IA. However, the northward flow of moisture into MO will keep rains around across the state, especially the southeastern half through the duration of the night. Areas in closer proximity to the low pressure system (along and south of the I-44 corridor in MO) continue periods of rain with even a few rumbles of thunder possible Friday. The rains will be locally heavy at times in southern MO, so isolated flooding in low-lying areas cannot be ruled out. Due to this threat, Flood Watches are in effect for portions of south-central MO through Saturday morning.
Simulated radar from 6pm CST Friday through 12am CST Sunday: As the low pressure system progresses eastward Friday night into Saturday, the rains will continue to wrap around the northwest periphery of the system along and south of the I-44 corridor. Working into Saturday morning, the rain intensity and coverage will start to fade with only areas of light showers and drizzle hanging around in southeastern MO by Saturday evening. Virtually all precipitation will have either faded or exited to the east by 12am CST Sunday. Elsewhere, dry weather will prevail with a nice weekend on tap!
Total precipitation through Saturday evening is shown below. The heaviest axis for rains will be situated along and south of the I-44 corridor in MO where widespread 1-2.5″ of rain is expected to fall. Localized amounts of 3″+ can’t be ruled out given the steady influx of moisture into these areas, hence the Flood Watches issued across portions of south-central MO. As previously stated, isolated flooding is possible due to the steady rains so definitely take it slow if traveling and avoid any possible flooded roadways.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!