Good afternoon everyone! We have warmed nicely in some areas while others have proven to stay on the more chilly side. Based on current temperatures across the area this afternoon (3:30pm CST), we are able to pick out in close proximity where snow cover remains across the area. Most locations that are still in the 20s this afternoon have a deeper snowpack on the ground (southern MN, southeastern SD, northeastern ND and northwestern MN). Elsewhere, 30s are more prevalent with even some locations warming into the 40s in the northern SD and southwestern ND.
Patchy dense fog will once again be a problem Tuesday morning throughout MN and the eastern thirds of the Dakotas. With temperatures below 32ºF in these areas, there is the risk for freezing fog which could cause possible slick spots on area roadways and pavement. Something to keep in mind heading out in these areas into Tuesday morning. Most of this fog should dissipate through the morning hours Tuesday, but some areas in far southern MN may hang the fog around through a good duration of the day.
Overall, we’re still looking at a dry end to the day into tonight before we finally work in a piece of energy Tuesday morning from the Rockies into the western Dakotas that increases precipitation risks. There will be energy working into northwestern ND, but with plenty of dry air, most precipitation should stay just south and east of the area. Temperatures in the region will mostly support light snows as the disturbance works eastward Tuesday, but some mixing with rain/freezing rain will be possible.
As the system works eastward Tuesday afternoon and especially evening in the eastern Dakotas, the precipitation will be initially battling dry air at the surface that will need to be overcame. This will be especially true in eastern SD shown below where relative humidity values don’t support a saturated column of air at the surface. Eventually the precipitation will overcome this drier layer and reach the surface, but it may hinder some snowfall accumulations in the area.
Simulated radar from 3am CST to 6pm CST Tuesday: We’ll watch the disturbance tomorrow morning work in as early as 6am CST across northwestern SD/southwestern ND as light snow mixing in with rain and freezing rain at times. This will continue to be the story as it pushes eastward across SD and the southern portions of ND through the day Tuesday. The best chances for all snow will be as it works across the eastern Dakotas Tuesday evening as temperatures begin to fall. By the end of this loop (6pm CST Tuesday), areas of light snow will be working into northwestern MN.
Total snowfall through 3am CST Wednesday: Snowfall amounts generally will stay on the lighter side, with 1″ or less for locations in northern SD, southeastern ND into western MN. Given the scattered nature of the convection, some areas will miss out and receive little to no accumulation. Localized pockets of 1″+ will be possible, especially in northwestern MN.
As we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, we’ll be watching for additional risks of patchy dense fog across the eastern two thirds of the Dakotas and far western MN. This will be associated with a warm front lifting into the area. However, temperatures at this time look to still remain below freezing so freezing fog risks will be a concern once again.
The energy associated with the wave Tuesday into Tuesday night will reorganize into a low pressure system just to the southeast of the area Wednesday morning that could lead to light snow chances on the northern periphery in southeastern MN. This will allow the snows tracking through the other portions of MN to gradually weaken Tuesday night as the focus of the energy shifts to the southeast.
Simulated radar from 6pm CST Tuesday through 1pm CST Wednesday: Light snows will lift out of Dakotas by 3am CST Wednesday while also substantially weakening as it works through MN. The low pressure system will organize southeast of MN but allow for snow development along the northern periphery of the system in southeastern MN early Wednesday morning before lifting out of the state by 12pm CST. In total with the light snows impacting portions of southeastern MN, the latest Euro and FV3 are hinting at the idea of 1-2″ of snow.
After the low pressure system exits the region to the east, we’ll watch another weak wave push into the western Dakotas Wednesday afternoon while progressing across the remainder of the Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. This disturbance will eventually progress into northwestern MN late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This wave could spawn with mainly rain showers initially before transitioning to mostly snow in the far eastern Dakotas and especially northwestern MN.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!