Good Saturday morning everyone! The winter storm we have been discussing over the past week is currently impacting portions of the region with heavy snow. These snows can be found over a large majority of NE with the beginnings of rain and freezing rain transitioning to snow as we speak across northwestern IA. A few remaining areas of light snow can also be noted in western ND/SD. Heavy snows are clipping the far southern portions of SD as well. Warmer temperatures with rain can be found further east across far southeastern NE into central/eastern IA.
Here’s a look at the current winter storm alerts across the area: Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across the southern half of SD into northern/central NE. These warnings then extend further east into northwestern IA and far southern MN. We continue to target these areas for significant snow accumulations, especially in NE before all is set and done. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for western ND, portions of southwestern/southeastern NE, additional areas of northern IA and southern MN.
Fog continues to be a threat across ND and portions of MN this morning but as we work into the afternoon and evening hours, the fog threat will shift into ND (circled area below). Temperatures across the vast majority of ND are below freezing, so freezing fog is a concern through the day into early night. The fog will gradually dissipate through the nighttime hours with most areas fog-free by Sunday morning.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Sunday: Rains/Freezing rain continue to gradually transition to snow through the morning hours across eastern NE and northern IA while rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will continue across southern and eastern IA through the duration of the day. Southern MN will take a bit longer as this area observes the shift to snow mainly during the early afternoon hours. However, a heavy band of snow will continue to setup across NE, far southern/southeastern SD and southern MN this afternoon and evening related to an area of frontogenesis (development of a boundary that aids in lift). The snows that develop in northwestern IA will lift into southern MN during this time. Additional light snows will develop in this area as the shower activity further south and east wraps into the colder pocket of air. As we head into tonight, the low pressure system will slowly work eastward with colder air wrapping in, allowing for a transition to snow showers again across the western half/northern IA while snows remain persistent in NE, southern/southeastern SD and southern MN. Combined with wind gusts of 30-40mph, near-blizzard conditions are possible especially through tonight. Light snows will gradually fade in western ND this evening.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Sunday through 9am CST Monday: The low pressure center will meander slowly eastward through the day Sunday, which will help to pull the snows south and eastward with time and steadily weaken the snow coverage. Snows will pull southward out of SD shortly after 12pm CST Sunday and southern MN around 9pm CST. However, areas of light snow will linger in eastern/southern NE into southern IA into the nighttime hours. Gradually, most snow shower coverage will lift out of NE around 3am CST Monday and eventually IA early Monday morning. The vast majority of the region will be clear of falling snow by the lunch hour Monday.
Here’s a simulation of the temperatures through the remainder of the event: Temperatures continue to be marginal (low to mid 30s) for most of the day today in NE, southern SD and northwestern IA, allowing for a heavy, wet snow that then freezes as colder air works into these areas tonight into Sunday. The heavy, wet snow will weigh trees and power lines down, with power outages possible. Snow will more easily accumulate Sunday with the falling temperatures (well into the 20s), but frontogenesis today will allow for heavy banding a quick accumulations as well.
Here’s an updated snowfall graphic for additional accumulations through Sunday: There will be a sharp cutoff in snowfall amounts across central/eastern SD with discrepancies remaining in central IA due to how quickly the rains can transition to snow. Continue to note the gradient in central/eastern SD that will be quite strong with a short distance between an additional near foot of snow and less than 1″. We are still targeting north-central NE to receive the brunt of this storm where an additional 8-12″+ of snow is expected. Localized pockets of 2 feet can’t be ruled out when all is set and done. Some model guidance is hinting at more snow in far northwestern MO/southwestern IA than what is depicted below. Something to note going forward. This will be a memorable storm given its slow-moving nature. Travel in some areas will be near impossible.
As stated previously, expect gusty winds through the day Sunday with gusts over 30mph (locally 40+). These winds will gradually taper down to 25-30mph gusts late tonight through Sunday. Blow/drifting snow should be anticipated, especially in southern SD, southern MN, NE and northwestern IA given the greater snow coverage and strong winds. Visibilities will be extremely reduced.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days: The bulk of the precipitation shown below comes with the current winter storm. After this system exits Sunday night into Monday morning, a quieter stretch of days is on tap with only a weak disturbance lifting through NE and IA Wednesday night into Thursday. Liquid amounts totaling 1-2″ is expected from western IA through the eastern two-thirds of NE through the next 7 days.
High/low temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will linger around freezing through a majority of this event, leading to a very wet snow and additional issues for power lines and trees. Colder temperatures work in late tonight into the day Sunday which will allow for a drier, more fluffy snow to fall.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts for Bismarck, Omaha, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!