Good morning everyone! The vast majority of MO has cleared out the shower and storm activity that worked through the state last night into earlier this morning while wrap-around snows are impacting northwestern/north-central KS as of 10:50am CST. Just to the east of this area in northeastern KS, temperatures remain warm enough that precipitation is falling in the form of rain at this time. As we progress through the remainder of the day, wrap-around snows will continue in northern KS while the rains shift eastward into far eastern KS and northwestern MO.
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for portions of northwestern KS where a few inches of accumulating snow is expected before the snows taper off Sunday night. Winds will be gusty today into tonight, which will lead to blowing and drifting snow. More on this later.
Another threat to contend with today is the fog potential across the northern third of MO. Current observations indicate that visibilities in some areas are less than a quarter of a mile. The fog will be here to stay with barely any changes expected through the remainder of the day. Even into tonight, the fog will still be present but as the nighttime hours progress, the fog will lift north with most areas clear of this threat by Sunday morning.
The next threat to discuss will be the strong storm potential over the far eastern portions of MO today, particularly along the Mississippi River and points east. The cold front will be swinging through this area early afternoon and ahead of it a dry slot that will allow for moments of sunshine. With this dry slot working in, instability will increase. Coupled with plentiful moisture and a stout low-level jet aiding in the turning of winds with height, we are eyeing far eastern MO in particular for these strong to severe storms. Given the low pressure center in close proximity to this area, helicity (spin) will be ample in these parts, which could result in isolated tornadoes. Clearing has already taken place in parts of these areas, which is helping to shake up the atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting far eastern MO in a slight risk given the dynamics. These storms will exit into IL late in the afternoon and early evening.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Sunday: With clearing already undergone in portions of MO, enough instability will build that would allow for a broken line of strong storms to develop between 1-3pm CST in far eastern MO before exiting into IL by 5pm CST. The main threats with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail. However given the natural spin in the atmosphere this afternoon, a few isolated tornadoes will be possible. Elsewhere, light showers will be possible across northern MO again this afternoon and evening while snows persist across the northern portions of KS. Progressing through the night, wrap-around snow showers will continue in northern KS with even some of the shower activity in northwestern MO transitioning to snow. Recent model runs are favoring a small band of moderate to heavy snow to develop along the western side of the low pressure system in far northwestern MO/northeastern KS this evening into tonight that should be noted.
Winds will be quite strong today as the storm system strengthens across the region. Wind gusts of over 30mph (locally 40+) will be common before these winds taper down to 25-30 late tonight into Sunday. For a brief period of time today, some areas may have a relaxation in winds as the low pressure center tracks over. These strong winds will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibilities in northern KS and possibly far northwestern MO.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Sunday through 9am CST Monday: This system will be slow-moving, so light snow shower risks will remain Sunday in northern KS and far northwestern MO. As the storm system lifts east Sunday night into Monday morning, so will the light snows as they exit northern KS by 3am CST Monday and northern MO by 9am CST. A few light flurries will remain possible in northeastern MO through the day Monday.
Here’s a look at additional snowfall through Sunday: The bulk of the heaviest snows will remain just north of the area in NE and IA, but given some wrap-around snows drifting through northern MO and far northwestern MO through this timeframe, some areas will receive a general 1-4″ of snow with locally higher amounts possible. Snowfall amounts drop off considerably the further south you are. Confidence still remains low in this area given it’s on the edge of the snows, but as noted before some model guidance is hinting at a small band of snow to develop within the yellow circle below that would allow snowfall amounts to overachieve. Given the uncertainty here, we remain on the lower side but understand that overachieving snows will be possible. Regardless, winds remaining gusty will allow for some blowing snow along with reduced visibilities.
Total precipitation through Monday: An additional 0.1-0.5″ of liquid can be expected in northern KS/MO with localized pockets of near 1″ possible. Areas further south in far southern KS/MO will remain on the drier side. We’ll look for a quieter trend to follow with a weak wave of precipitation possible Thursday, followed up by a potential snowmaker Friday into next Saturday.
High temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will be marginal today in northern KS, so snow will have a more difficult time accumulating.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Following this storm system Tuesday morning, temperatures will likely fall into the teens in far northern KS with 20s more likely elsewhere across the area.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Columbia, Kansas City, Wichita and Dodge City:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!