Thanks for checking out today’s winter threat assessment blog! This is going to be more of a fun blog vs. scientific as we look at what various weather folklore passed on over the centuries would suggest for this upcoming winter. NOTE: *****In no way, shape, or form are we applying any of this folklore into our winter forecast.***** In the least, it’s always fun to look at! I want to give credit to John Belski’s “Backyard Weather Folklore” book as that’s where some of these folklores were obtained from.
TREES:
You may have noticed that the leaves have been holding on to the trees a bit longer than normal this year. This has been a common theme throughout the eastern U.S. due to the very wet and warm late summer that extended into early Fall. Even with our sharp pattern change mid-month, trees peaked in foliage a bit later than average. We just reached peak foliage last week in Indiana. We’ve observed later fall foliage here in Indiana for the past 3 autumns now.
Folklore Prediction: A cold and snowy winter.
Any accuracy to this method? I mentioned that the past 3 Autumns (including this year) the trees kept their leaves longer than normal. The winter of 2016-2017 this method did not work well as the winter ended up mild. Last year, we did indeed see a colder winter for many areas. This year? We forecast a colder than normal winter. Probably more or less by chance than there being scientific reasoning behind this.
There is also folklore that if the pear tree leaves hang on into December, the winter will be cold. Watch those pear trees!
Sticking to our tree folklore, another common winter folklore used is the persimmon seed. The overwhelming majority of persimmon seeds in the area have had had a “spoon” marking inside the seeds.
Folklore Prediction: The spoon marking is said to mean lots of snow in the northern states, as the spoon resembles a shovel. It also means a mild winter – “spoon fed means mild.” To add to that, I will say we don’t need a super cold winter to bring lots of snow! If anything, being a bit warmer can be a better signal for larger storms. I have seen a few reports of forks, which would mean a “normal” winter. I have yet to see the knife shape, which means a cold winter.
Any accuracy to this method? I personally have not kept any record of persimmon seeds to know if it has been telling of the winter. Many say this works fairly well.
INSECTS:
Let’s talk about the wooly worms! I personally have seen much fewer wooly worms compared to previous years. I do recall seeing a brown one in late September and interestingly, I saw a black this past Saturday. Based on comments from our Facebook page, it appears most people are seeing very dark wooly worms this year.
Folklore prediction: Folklore does mention if there is a large number of wooly worms, that is a sign of a cold and snowy winter. On a personal note, I have noticed fewer wooly worms this year compared to the last several. I would assume this means a sign of a milder winter. That said, that doesn’t mean my observation in my small world is correct. Something interesting is that I spotted a wooly worm in November this year. Folklore does say if they are sighted in November, this means a bad winter is coming. It was also a black, fuzzy worm, which means a cold and snowy winter.
Any accuracy to this? I personally have found really no connection with wooly worm colors to the winter outcome. Many people swear by this one, but in the past 5 years I think this has panned out twice, and it was probably by luck. “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.”
Let’s look at spiders. I didn’t actually know there was any winter folklore related to spiders. The thought came to mind as there seems to me there have been a larger number of spiders this year. I’ve also been dealing with more spiders in my home than I can remember in recent years.
Folklore Prediction: Folklore says spiders in large numbers during the Fall and more spiders coming inside is a sign of a cold winter.
Moving on to hornets…I was told on Saturday that the hornet nests have generally been higher off the ground this fall. I personally have noticed wasp nests being lower to the ground.
Folklore Prediction: Mild. If wasps and bees build their nest high, this indicates a bad winter. However, hornets are the opposite. If their nests are high off the ground, this means a mild winter. If they are low, this means cold. Based on my observations, this folklore would mean a mild winter.
Any accuracy? I don’t have any record if this pans out. I know some say this works well for predicting the winter, especially when it comes to snowfall.
Fog Folklore:
Folklore says the more fog in August and October, the more snow there will be the following winter. I looked back at the observations for Indy, and overall we’ve had fewer fog days this year. I included fog days if the visibility of 1/4mile or less was observed. This would be a sign of less snow. That said, amount of fog can vary greatly from one location to another depending on location (sheltered, valley location vs. a hilltop, etc). Out of the several folklores discussed, I would not imagine how this could have any possible say on the amount of snow for winter.
There is so much more fascinating folklore out there, but we simply don’t have enough time to cover even half of them! Let’s take a quick tally of what the following would suggest for the winter. Overall, half of these indicate cold, while half would be a sign of a mild winter. You could argue that it’s more than half of these as the persimmon seed “spoon” is a mild sign but also snowy for the northern states.
We’ll have our next blog coming up on Thursday to talk about all things winter! If you or your business deals with snow removal, you are watching the forecast closely as we head into winter. We can offer you can an accurate forecast with attention to detail, certified snow totals after a storm, and 24/7 on-call support!! Inquire today at bamwx.com/contact-us.
Text Alert Service: ***If your business this winter relies on real-time updates we recommend signing up for our text alert service (this is an additional service) to get real-time updates regarding wintry precipitation/temps/risks right to your cell phone. Here’s a sample of what that looks like below. With this very cold pattern settling in ahead we recommend those that push snow/salt to be gearing up and getting equipment ready. To get more information on this email us at “[email protected]” for more!***
