Good morning everyone! We are still tracking the disturbance that brought accumulating snows to ND yesterday. However, this morning, the rains and snow are located over southeastern MN. In general, rains are falling but there are some corridors southeast/east of Minneapolis that are observing snow at this time with areas north of Saint Cloud also seeing some light snowflakes. There is also another patch of light snow showers north of Grand Forks. This disturbance will strengthen as it rides up the eastern periphery of MN into early night, allowing for additional snowfall accumulations to take place, especially locations along the northern coast of Lake Superior in the Arrowhead.
Here’s the synopsis going through the rest of today into tonight. We’ll watch the upper-level low dig further south and allow the surface low pressure system to ride along the eastern flanks of MN. This will bring rain and snow to these areas with a greater emphasis on snow the further north you’re located in eastern MN. This disturbance will finally clear the area tonight, ending the snows in eastern MN while our attention then turns towards the western Dakotas where a following disturbance will bring rain/snow chances starting late this afternoon into tonight.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Monday: With colder temperatures funneling into MN, we’ll continue to see a transition from rain to snow across portions of southeastern MN as the storm system glides along the eastern periphery of MN. Snows are likely across northeastern MN this afternoon into early night that will lead to snowfall accumulations. With the disturbance working northward into Monday morning, a transition back to rain showers is possible across the Arrowhead. Elsewhere, our attention turns back west where an additional disturbance lifting out of the Rockies into the western Dakotas will bring a mix of rain and snow showers starting around 3pm CST. This wave will work eastward overnight, continuing areas of rain and snow showers in ND with more rain showers likely across portions of SD.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Monday through 12pm CST Tuesday: The disturbance across the Dakotas continues to work eastward Monday morning, bringing light snow showers along its northern periphery in northern ND with rain showers further south in southern ND into eastern SD and southwestern MN. Through the afternoon hours, these showers will progress eastward through the remainder of eastern SD into additional portions of southern and western MN. As the convection works through MN Monday night into Tuesday morning, a gradual transition to snow on the northern and western end of the convection in the northern half of MN is possible with more cold air in place. Wrap-around snow showers will funnel into ND starting late Monday night with a gradual increase in coverage anticipated heading through Tuesday morning. These wrap-around snow showers will continue eastward through the day Tuesday.
Accumulating snows are likely across portions of the region through Tuesday morning. The first area is in eastern MN with the activity working through the area through early night. The second comes with the second disturbance as it brings a mix of rain and snow showers initially to ND before wrap-around snows lift in Monday night into Tuesday. Lake enhancement will likely leave a sliver of 6″+ of snow along the northern coast of Lake Superior in the Arrowhead through tonight with lighter accumulations elsewhere across eastern MN. Winter Weather Advisories and even a corridor of Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across the Arrowhead. Through 12pm CST Tuesday, SD will receive little snow.
Total precipitation through 12pm CST Tuesday: A general 0.1-0.5″ of liquid is expected across ND into northern MN while 0.5-1″ is more likely in southern MN and along the Lake Superior coast. Precipitation will remain rather light across a majority of SD where up to 0.1″ of liquid is to be expected. The eastern third of SD will see slightly higher amounts.
Here’s a look at 7-day precipitation via the European Model: The greatest coverage for precipitation through this period will be in southern and eastern MN where 0.5-1″ of liquid is likely. Light rains and accumulating snow in ND will bring liquid amounts up to 0.5″. Over the last 24 hours, models have shifted further south with the possible accumulating snowfall event late work week. Current consensus keeps these snows in the Central Plains but any deviations in track will be monitored.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: It will be quite chilly today across southern MN with highs only in the mid 30s due to continued cloudiness and precipitation chances. Elsewhere, upper 30s to mid 40s will be more common. Temperatures will take a nosedive Tuesday and especially Wednesday behind an upper-level low progressing through the region. Highs on Wednesday will fail to reach 30ºF in many locations across ND, northern MN and northern SD.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Winds will be substantially gusty across the western Dakotas Monday and the rest of the Dakotas into Tuesday with wind gusts of 35-40mph being common both days.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 15 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis: A much colder airmass is looking to drop southward out of Canada into the region mid-week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!