Good morning everyone! There are some lingering showers working eastward across far northeastern KS near Kansas City that will gradually work out over the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, the region has turned drier, but as is the story with this active pattern we’re in, an additional disturbance will lift in late this afternoon and evening across the High Plains that will bring areas of light showers.
Here’s the general idea going forward through Monday afternoon: We’ll watch this next disturbance kick out of the Rockies and lift into the High Plains late in the afternoon and evening hours, bringing areas of light rain in the process. This wave of energy will gradually push eastward with time overnight into Monday, providing shower chances to areas further east across eastern KS/NE. There also will be enough instability in the atmosphere Monday morning that a few embedded storms are possible across far southeastern KS.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Tuesday: The High Plains of NE and KS will begin to work light rain showers starting after 4pm CST this afternoon with coverage increasing across western NE/KS as we progress further into the evening and early overnight. A few snowflakes may mix in across the NE Panhandle before precipitation comes to an end late tonight. This storm system will push eastward with light rain showers across the remainder of NE and KS through the overnight hours with precipitation spread out across eastern NE/KS by 6am CST Monday morning. Heading through Monday morning, these showers will continue eastward with even a few embedded storms possible in far southeastern KS before all of this convection lifts out of the area after 3pm CST. While not a large threat by any means, there could be a few patches of lingering drizzle immediately following this wave Monday given areas of low-level saturation. Eventually we’ll work out these precipitation chances with only isolated risks for rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. The first additional chance for isolated showers comes Monday evening and night across the NE Panhandle before any areas of rain gradually wane. Another area will be across southeastern NE and northeastern KS Tuesday morning given some weak energy rolling through.
The rains will remain generally light across western KS where little measurable precipitation is likely. Rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.5″ can be expected across a good portion of NE and eastern KS with this upcoming disturbance. Shown below is total precipitation through Tuesday morning.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: Models continue to deviate on the placement/potential of accumulating snows Wednesday night through Thursday night across portions of the region. Varying model solutions such as the European, GFS Parallel and the ICON depict a decent accumulating snow event possible during this timeframe, with a general consensus located over the northern two-thirds of KS at this time. Precipitation over the next week will be quite variable dependent on the track and amounts from this potential winter storm and additional updates will be provided going forward. This event is not set in stone and run to run changes are likely!
High temperatures over the next four days: With colder air funneling behind the storm system that worked through the area yesterday and last night, highs today will generally stay in the 40s across central/eastern NE into eastern KS with 50s likely further west. We’ll see a slight incline in high temperatures Monday across central KS with lower 60s expected.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Lows in the 30s will be common across eastern NE, far northeastern KS and the NE Panhandle Monday morning with lows in the 40s likely elsewhere. Tuesday morning we’ll usher in cooler weather that will allow many in NE to dip below freezing with many locations at or above freezing in KS.
Wind forecast over the next four days: With the incoming storm system tonight into the day Monday, strong winds in excess of 35mph will be possible (especially in NE) before gradually fading in intensity Monday night.
High/low temperatures from the European Ensembles over the next 15 days for North Platte, Lincoln, Dodge City and Salina: Eyeing a colder stretch of temperatures behind the incoming storm system mid to late work week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!