Good evening everyone! The beginnings of our potent storm system is bringing areas of showers to the eastern two-thirds of KS with some very light shower activity also lifting through western MO. This wave will continue to push northward through the evening hours, but will be replaced with additional showers and storms later in the evening into the overnight hours.
The other story to contend with is areas of dense fog which can be noted across the region. Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect over portions of western KS and just east of Kansas City through the next hour or so. However, this will not be the end of the fog risk as we will continue to note areas of fog even into the nighttime hours across KS and especially northern MO (depicted in darker shadings in the second graphic). Many areas of fog will burn off late tonight into early tomorrow morning, but we still can’t rule out some patches remaining in northeastern KS/northwestern MO.
The storm system developing over the southern Plains will rapidly strengthen as it lifts into the area this evening and tonight. We’ll watch for showers and storms to break out during this time which have the potential to become strong/severe. Shown below is the Storm Prediction Center’s Outlook for severe weather this evening and tonight. Given a negatively tilted trough (indicates strengthening of the system), instability and a stout low-level jet aiding in wind shear, some of these storms will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds, particularly in southeastern KS and the southern third of MO. An isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out given the dynamics.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Saturday: The area of showers lifting northward across the eastern two-thirds of KS and western MO will quickly be replaced with an influx of scattered showers and storms by 9pm CST this evening across KS (especially the eastern two-thirds) into southern MO. Shower and storm coverage will increase through the remainder of the evening into the early overnight hours across a majority of KS and MO. As stated previously, some of these storms may be severe. This increasing rain and storm coverage will work northward overnight with most rain activity in northern/eastern MO and northern KS by 6am CST Saturday. Colder air will be wrapping around the low pressure system, allowing some of the rains in north-central KS to transition to snow Saturday morning. By the end of this loop, only light shower/drizzle chances will be left over in MO with a mixed bag of rain and snow in northern KS.
Winds will definitely pick up Saturday as the storm system strengthens across the region. Wind gusts of over 30mph (locally 40+) will be common before these wind gusts taper down to 25-30mph late Saturday night into Sunday. For a brief period of time Saturday, some areas may have a relaxation in winds as the low pressure center tracks over.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST Saturday through 12am CST Monday: Pending any clearing during the day Saturday across eastern MO, enough instability could build that would allow for a broken line of strong storms to develop during the early afternoon hours before exiting into IL around 3pm CST. These storms will fire in close proximity to the cold front and with the low pressure center just off to the northwest, there could be enough helicity (spin) to allow for a couple isolated tornadoes. However, the main threat will be large hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, light showers will remain possible in northern MO through the afternoon and evening while a mixed bag of rain and snow is more likely in northeastern KS. Light snows will be more common in northwestern KS. Progressing through Saturday night, wrap-around snow showers will continue in northern MO while some transition to snow showers will be possible in northwestern MO. This system will be slow-moving, so light snow shower risks will remain Sunday in northern KS and especially Sunday night in northern KS/MO as the light snows drift southward (though this feature will be weakening).
Here’s the latest thinking regarding snowfall amounts: The bulk of the heaviest snows should remain just north of the area in NE and IA, but given some wrap-around snows drifting into the northern portions of KS, some areas particularly along the NE/KS border can receive at least a few inches of snow. Snowfall amounts will drop off considerably the further south you are. Confidence does remain low in this area pending any slight deviations in track that could shift the locations of the wrap-around snows. Regardless, winds remaining gusty will allow for some blowing snow along with reduced visibilities.
Total precipitation through Sunday: A general 0.75-1.5″ of liquid is expected from the eastern two-thirds of KS into MO with localized 2″+ possible in spots, especially those impacted by heavy storms. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible that could lead to flooding in low-lying places. Precipitation will remain more scattered in coverage across the western third of KS.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!