Good morning everyone! Rains have returned to the Central Plains as we are tracking a disturbance working across eastern NE, western IA, northwestern MO and northeastern KS as of 8:15am CDT. A few lighter showers can be noted in the northern NE Panhandle. Over the course of the day, expect these rains to continue to push eastward with additional development likely along the cold front heading into this afternoon.
Along with the rains, areas of dense fog can be noted just to the east of the convection across south-central IA into central/eastern MO. Enough clearing took place overnight along with calmer winds to allow for this fog to develop. Dense Fog Advisories are in effect in these areas until 9am CDT as the fog is expected to gradually erode through the morning hours. Out west into the NE Panhandle, High Wind Warnings are in effect due to the strong winds accompanying this storm system. More on the winds in the 4-panels!
Rains will continue to progress eastward through the remainder of the day. Shown below is the setup heading into tonight as the low pressure system digs southward into the region. Overall, a shield of stratiform rains is likely to persist across IA into tonight with a stripe of moderate rains riding along the cold front further south into MO. Instability will be quite lacking, but we could work in just enough across the far southern portions of MO to observe a few rumbles of thunder. This system progresses eastward into Sunday morning.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday: Stratiform rains progress eastward across eastern NE into IA over the course of the day, gradually exiting NE by the time 12am CDT Sunday rolls around. IA will continue to see these rains through the duration of Saturday night into Sunday morning. As these rains work eastward, there is a chance the scattered rain showers in western NE today mix in with snow due to colder air funneling into the area. To the south of the stratiform rains, a wave of moderate rains will likely initiate in close proximity to the surface low/cold front this afternoon in eastern KS before progressing eastward across MO during the nighttime hours. Scattered light showers will likely prelude the development of this wave in KS this morning into early afternoon. As stated previously, a few embedded storms are possible within this feature, mainly in far southern MO. By 7am CDT Sunday, virtually all rain activity will have pushed out of NE and KS with just patchy drizzle remaining in the eastern portions of these states. The main wave will still be impacting IA and northern/eastern MO by this time.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: The wave of rains across IA and MO will gradually lift out of the region into early afternoon Sunday with areas of low clouds and patchy drizzle lingering through the afternoon and evening hours. The High Plains will clear this disturbance tonight but any dry weather will be short-lived as we turn our focus to the next disturbance expecting to lift into western KS/NE with light rain starting early Sunday afternoon. A few snowflakes may mix in before temperatures warm and the precipitation turns to all rain. This storm system will push eastward with light rain showers across the remainder of NE and KS Sunday night with precipitation spread out across northern KS, eastern/southern NE, western IA and a good portion of MO by 7am CDT Monday morning. This disturbance will prove to be more potent as it works eastward Monday, especially across MO.
Rains will be widespread across northeastern NE into IA and northern MO through this timespan with 0.5-1.5″ of rain likely (higher-end amounts more likely in IA). Locations across eastern KS into the southern half of MO will end up with 0.25-0.75″ of rain with locally higher amounts possible. Over the last 12 hours, there has been a trend to bring these rains into eastern KS as development of the wave of rains is now expected to occur earlier and further west. This model is also likely a tad underdone in southern MO; Something to keep note.
This second wave will prove to be more potent as it works across the area Monday. Strong storms are likely to develop along the cold front Monday evening/night across the southeastern portions of MO given the negative tilt of the system (signifies strengthening), increased instability and a stout jet streak (aids in divergence aloft and the development of showers and storms). All these ingredients coming together at the right time can produce storms that are capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. This is definitely an event in these areas to keep tabs on.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days from various numerical weather models: Model agreement is lacking at this time across the western portions of NE and KS where models such as GFS Parallel and the European depict a hefty accumulating snowfall event Thursday into Friday while other models such as the GFS and ICON are more hesitant. Precipitation through this period across these areas will be quite reliant on the evolution of this potential storm system and additional updates will be provided going forward. There is more model consensus further east across IA and MO where 1-2″ of precipitation is the most likely.
High temperatures over the next four days: We’ll still observe a bit of warmth to the south of the main wave of rains across the southern portions of the area where some can exceed 60ºF. Further north across NE and IA, precipitation and cloud cover will hinder temperatures from rising much above 45ºF. The current disturbance will usher in a wave of colder air Sunday with highs mainly in the 40s across a good majority of NE, IA, MO and eastern KS.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Low temperatures Sunday morning will fall into the 20s across the High plains with 40s more likely across eastern KS into MO. Lows in the 40s will dominate the southern portions of the region Monday morning while 30s are more likely further north.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Strong winds should be anticipated across the Western Plains today as we watch the storm system progress through the area. Wind gusts upwards of 45-50mph will be common in the High Plains of NE and KS before gradually fading as the system pushes eastward tonight. Upon its travel eastward, it will likely undergo strengthening that will result in strong winds across eastern IA and especially MO this evening into Sunday morning. Here, winds will be gusting in the range of 40-45mph at times. Winds will die down west to east Sunday as this disturbance progresses into the OHV. The second graphic below shows the simulation of these winds through Sunday.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Eyeing a colder stretch of weather behind the potent storm system mid to late work week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!