Good afternoon everyone! This will be a quick update regarding the evolution of rains through the day Sunday. The feature we have been following over the course of the morning is now located slightly further northeast across the eastern third of NE, a large portion of IA and far northwestern MO as of 12:40pm CDT. Lighter shower activity is draped off to the southeast across eastern and southern MO while some weak development on the main feature’s southwest periphery can be noted in northeastern KS. A few weak showers are also clipping the very far southwestern portions of KS. Through the remainder of the day, expect these rains to continue to push eastward with additional development (the beginnings of this noted in northeastern KS) likely along the cold front heading later into the afternoon and especially the evening hours.
Rains will continue to progress eastward through the remainder of the day. Shown below is an updated graphic from this morning discussing the setup heading into tonight as the low pressure system strengthens over the eastern portions of the region. Overall, a shield of stratiform rains is likely across IA into tonight with a corridor of moderate rains riding along the surface low/cold front further south into MO and far eastern KS. As mentioned this morning, instability will still be rather insufficient, but we could work in just enough that far southeastern KS into southwestern MO observe a few rumbles of thunder from embedded elevated storms this evening into tonight. This system progresses eastward into Sunday morning.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST: Stratiform rains continue their progression along the northern periphery of the surface low across eastern NE and especially IA over the remainder of the day, with the steadiest rains mostly exiting NE late this evening. IA will continue to see these rains work west to east through the overnight hours into Sunday morning. As these rains work eastward, there is a chance the scattered, weak rain showers off to the west in western/central NE could mix with snow this evening into tonight while gradually dissipating. To the south of the stratiform rains, a wave of moderate rains will initiate in close proximity to the surface low/cold front over the next several hours in eastern KS before progressing eastward across MO during the nighttime hours. Scattered light showers will likely prelude the development of this wave in eastern KS. As stated previously, a few elevated storms embedded within the corridor of moderate rains are possible. By 6am CST Sunday, virtually all rain rain activity will have pushed out of NE and KS with just some patchy drizzle remaining in the eastern portions of these states. Through the day Sunday, the main wave will continue to progress eastward along the cold front. Most of this activity will lift out of the region after 6pm CST (still could observe some remaining patches of drizzle hanging back). It’s important to note the HRRR model holds onto rains a tad longer in western IA, but based on better model agreement elsewhere with the NAM3km, we agree more with the NAM’s solution. Our attention will then focus to the next disturbance lifting into western KS/NE with areas of light rain Sunday evening.
Rains will continue to be more widespread at this point across IA and MO through this timespan where 0.5-1.5″ of rain is likely. Locations across far eastern KS can also receive between 0.25-0.75″ of rain before the main wave along the cold front moves out tonight. The NAM3km model (shown below) has trended slightly wetter across northern MO and eastern IA, which lines up closely to the NSSL. Localized amounts upwards of 2″ can’t be ruled out in northern MO and eastern IA. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5″ are possible in northeastern NE.
Strong winds continue to be a problem across the High Plains today where wind gusts upwards of 35-45mph+ will be common before gradually fading as the system pushes east tonight. Upon its travel eastward, it will likely undergo strengthening that will result in strong winds across eastern IA and especially MO this evening into into Sunday morning. Here, winds will be gusting in the range of 40-45mph at times. Winds will die down west to east Sunday as the disturbance progresses into the OHV. Simulation of the winds is shown below.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!