Good morning everyone! A potent storm system is currently progressing through the Central Plains as of 6:25am CST bringing a swath of heavy snow to portions of northern KS and southern NE. Off to the east, lighter snows are impacting the central sections of IA with light rains near the IA/MO border. As we work through the remainder of the day, this system will slowly drift southeastward with the heavy band of snow setting up further east across southern/southeastern IA, northern MO and northeastern KS.
This significant winter storm will continue to traverse the region through the early portions of the night bringing several inches of snow to many locations. Blizzard Warnings are in effect across southern NE, northern KS and portions of northern MO/southern IA. There will be significant blowing and drifting snow with this system, especially in the areas under the Blizzard Warning. Reductions in visibilities will be common. Winter Storm Warnings are hoisted further east across southeastern IA and far northeastern MO. To the north and south of the Blizzard/Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. High Wind Warnings were also issued for southwestern KS.
As stated in yesterday’s updates, there will be plenty of frontogenesis (development of a boundary that aids in lift) with this winter storm as it works through the region today. Circled below is the corridor we believe continues to exhibit the best potential for a deformation (snow) band to set up that will lead to significant snow accumulations. Accumulating snows are expected outside of this corridor (as shown in the radar loop), but plentiful frontogenesis in the dendritic growth zone aids in snow development. Slight fluctuations in track can still happen but there will be a sharp cutoff in the snow along the northern periphery.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Monday: During the remainder of the morning, the mixed bag of precipitation in the southern half of IA will slowly change over to snow with the rest of northern KS also changing to snow. Northwestern MO will initially start off with rain (some snowflakes mixing in) before also transitioning to snow as we progress towards the noon hour. Snows will continue to work through southern KS as well. As the day progresses, the snow works eastward, gradually lifting out of south-central NE and the central third of KS. The deformation band that sets up across southern IA, northern MO and northeastern KS late this morning into the afternoon hours will push eastward with all snow out of NE and KS ~7-8pm CST and eventually IA and MO around 3am CST Monday. These times have been pushed back a couple of hours due to the model catching onto the slower progression of the storm (more in-line with the European Model).
This system will continue to strengthen as it traverses the Central Plains today, resulting in stronger winds. Wind gusts upwards of 45-50mph at times will lead to significant blowing and drifting snow as well as reduced visibilities. Blizzard conditions are to be expected in the areas under a Blizzard Warning currently with near-blizzard conditions possible in additional areas observing snow. Simulation of wind gusts through 6am CST Monday:
Additional snowfall through tonight: Given the frontogenesis previously discussed and the ample lift in the dendritic growth zone, a corridor of 6-12″ of snow is likely extending from Manhattan, KS through St. Joseph, MO to Davenport, IA. Snow accumulations will decline as you head north and south of this axis with a sharp cutoff in snowfall amounts in the Des Moines vicinity. Roads will be snow covered and extremely slick, so if you are traveling across the area during this timeframe, definitely be very mindful of the weather. Travel will be extremely difficult due to slick/snow covered roads and blizzard conditions.
We’ll gradually clear this system overnight and replace the heavy low-hanging clouds and precipitation with a mix of sun and clouds into Monday. This will be a welcomed change to the weather we will be experiencing today. A weak piece of energy from the Northern Plains will allow some additional clouds and weak precipitation coverage to work into portions of NE and northern KS during the afternoon hours, but most areas should remain dry.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Monday through 6am CST Tuesday: A few weak pieces of energy working into north-central NE could bring some very light snow shower/flurry activity during the daytime hours, but will be limited in coverage. Progressing into Monday night, this system slowly works southeastward into KS and could result in a few patches of light snow showers/freezing drizzle. Overall, impacts should remain minimal.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days: The winter storm will exit the region tonight and will be followed up with only weak disturbances through a good portion Friday. Another storm system will need to be watched late Friday into the weekend for possible impacts from rain and wrap-around snows. Some other model guidance isn’t too keen on the solution for the weekend, but given the pattern we are in, it is definitely a possibility and other models may trend this way. This following system will need to be monitored through the upcoming week.
High temperature guidance over the next four days: Colder daytime highs will be prevalent today over most areas with many at or below freezing. Warmer air will hang on in southern MO where temperatures in the 50s are expected. Fresh snowpack on Monday will prevent many in southern IA and northern MO from warming much above 20ºF.
Low temperature guidance over the next four mornings: With the passage of the significant winter storm today, the vast majority of the area will fall into the teens and 20s. Areas under a decent snowpack many fall into the single digits. this will be especially true come Tuesday morning where portions of southern IA and northern MO likely dip well into the single digits.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the high/low temperature charts for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!