Good afternoon everyone! Our potent storm system continues to slowly track eastward across eastern KS, northwestern MO, southern IA and far southeastern NE as of 1:05pm CST. Warmer temperatures just to the south of these areas are allowing rains between Kansas City and Columbia. As we work through the remainder of the day, this system will continues its slow drift eastward, bringing snows to the northeast portions of MO and far southeastern IA.
This significant winter storm will continue to traverse the region through the nighttime hours with several additional inches of snow on tap for many locations. Blizzard Warnings remain in effect across portions of southern IA, northern MO, northern KS and southeastern NE. Significant blowing and drifting snow will continue with this system, especially in the areas under a Blizzard Warning. Reductions in visibilities will be common. Even in the areas under a Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory, near-blizzard conditions will be possible.
We continue to reiterate the fact that a sharp temperature gradient at the 850mb level of the atmosphere is allowing for plenty of frontogenesis (development of a boundary that aids in lift) with this storm as it works through the region today. Circled below is the corridor we emphasize has the best potential for the deformation (snow) band to set up that will lead to significant snow accumulations. Accumulating snows are expected outside of this corridor (as shown in the radar loop), but frontogenesis in the dendritic growth zone aids in snow development. Slight fluctuations in track are possible which could have ramifications on snowfall totals due to the sharp cutoff in snows along the northern periphery.
Simulated radar through 4am CST Monday: As we continue to progress through the day, the snows work eastward, gradually lifting out of southeastern NE by 6pm CST. The deformation band that sets up across southern/southeastern IA, northern MO and northeastern KS will push eastward with all snow out of eastern KS by 8pm CST. Wrap-around snows will impact the southwestern portions of MO as well this evening. The low pressure will lift out of the area into the OHV, but will allow for snows to continue across southeastern IA and eastern MO late this evening into early night, before eventually exiting southeastern IA by 3am CST tonight and eastern MO around 6am CST Monday morning. Due to the system deepening more than anticipated, the exit times have been pushed back by a couple of hours once again (allows for a slower storm).
This system will continue to strengthen/deepen as it traverses the eastern portions of the region through the evening hours, resulting in strong winds. Wind gusts upwards of 45mph at times will lead to significant blowing and drifting snow as well as reduced visibilities. Blizzard conditions will remain in the areas under the Blizzard Warnings currently with near-blizzard conditions likely in additional areas observing snow. Simulation of wind gusts through 6am CST Monday:
Temperatures will fall quite dramatically behind this system into tonight, with many waking up well into the teens and lower 20s come Monday morning. Monday morning lows in the teens will be prevalent in the areas with deep snowpack as cloud cover starts to clear out and allows for increased radiational cooling. Any melted snow on the roadways will be allowed to easily re-freeze with temperatures dropping tonight, so slick spots will remain likely well into Monday.
Here’s a look at additional snowfall through tonight: Given the frontogenesis previously discussed and ample lift in the dendritic growth zone, a corridor of 6-12″ of additional snow is likely extending from Topeka through Kansas City to Davenport. Model guidance has trended more aggressive with snowfall amounts between Davenport, IA and Quincy, IL, so we’ve introduced a small window of 10-15″ snowfall amounts. Snow will decline as you head north and south of these corridors with a sharp cutoff in snowfall remaining near the Des Moines vicinity. Roads will be snow covered and extremely slick, so if you are traveling across the area, definitely be mindful of the weather. Travel will be extremely difficult due to slick/snow covered roads and blizzard conditions.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!