Good morning everyone! Some early upper-level energy out ahead of our incoming winter storm is impacting the western portions of NE as of 8:15am EST. A large sum of this convection depicted below is not reaching the ground, but there are reports of some snow flying in the NE Panhandle. Temperatures will warm as the day progresses, changing most of this precipitation to rain. However, temperatures will cool this evening into tonight and with additional energy working into the area, greater snow coverage can be anticipated.
As mentioned over the last several days, a significant winter storm is expected to traverse the Central Plains this evening through Sunday evening. Winter Storm Warnings have been hoisted by the National Weather Service for portions of northern MO, southern/southeastern IA, far southeastern/northwestern NE and far northeastern KS. The cancellation times for these warnings are shown below. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the remainder of NE, northern KS and along the northern/southern periphery of the Winter Storm Warnings in IA/MO.
There will be plenty of frontogenesis (development of a boundary that aids in lift) with this strengthening storm system as it works through the region tonight into Sunday. Circled below is a corridor we believe has the greatest potential for a significant deformation (snow) band to set up that leads to several inches of accumulating snow.
Simulated radar through 3am CST Monday: The weak wave of snow showers in western NE gradually works eastward today while transitioning to mostly rain showers as temperatures warm. Heading into this evening, precipitation coverage will increase across NE with rain showers in the eastern/southern portions of the state while snows take over in the northern/western portions of the state. This system will slowly work ESE through the nighttime hours, bringing a mixed bag of precipitation to the southern two-thirds of IA and rain showers in northern KS. A decent swath of snow will develop across NE overnight. Sunday morning, rains slowly changeover to snow across the southern two-thirds of IA and northern KS while northern MO initially works in a mixed bag of precipitation before also transitioning to snow. During the day Sunday, the snows work west to east, gradually lifting out of central NE/north-central KS. A significant band of snow sets up across eastern/southern IA and the northern third of MO Sunday afternoon. Snows lift out of NE and KS by 6pm CST Sunday and eventually IA and MO around 12am CST Monday. The European model holds onto the snows in southeastern IA and northeastern MO a tad longer than shown below, which is something to take note.
We’ll need to be on the lookout for some patchy dense fog to develop late tonight into Sunday morning, especially in southeastern MO. Winds will remain fairly light during this timeframe and given the recent rains, plenty of moisture will be left over. Warm air advection will also promote the development of this fog, which could very well continue through a good portion of the morning before gradually fading.
This system will be strengthening as it works through the area Sunday, so stronger winds are to be anticipated. Wind gusts approaching 40mph at times will lead to blowing and drifting snow, especially in areas harder hit. Near-blizzard conditions are possible given the snows and strong winds, so significant reductions in visibility can be expected.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through 3am CST Monday: In general, 0.25-0.75″ of liquid is expected across NE, northern KS, southern IA and the northern third of MO. The deformation band setting up in far northern MO into southeastern IA will likely lead to 0.75-1.25″ of liquid before all is set and done. Light shower activity/drizzle in southern MO won’t amount to much but at best 0.1″ of liquid.
Total snowfall this evening through Sunday evening: A corridor of 3-5″ of snow is expected stretching from northwestern NE through southeastern NE/northwestern MO into southeastern IA. Given frontogenesis and the development of a deformation band, an axis of 5-8″+ of snow is likely stretching from St. Joseph, MO through Davenport, IA. Snow accumulations will decline as you head north and south of this axis. Roads are expected to become snow covered, so if you are traveling through these areas during this timeframe, definitely be mindful of the weather. Travel will be extremely difficult due to slick/snow covered roads and near-Blizzard conditions.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days: The winter storm set to impact the region this weekend will make up a majority of the precipitation that is shown below. Following this system, a quieter trend will be noted with only weak energy lifting into the region through Friday. Not included will be the next potent storm system that will lift in next Saturday that will likely bring widespread rains to the area. This following system will need to be monitored through the upcoming week.
High temperature guidance over the next four days: Temperatures will range from the 30s in the far northern portions of the region to near 60ºF across southern KS/MO today. Colder temperatures will funnel into the northern/western areas Sunday behind the storm system that will only allow 20s for highs for most in IA, NE and KS. Warmer air will hang on in southern MO where temperatures near 60ºF are expected.
Low temperature guidance over the next four days: The warmest overnight lows (though relative) will come Sunday morning where southeastern KS into a majority of MO will drop down into the 40s. Further north, low temperatures in the 20s will be prevalent. Come Monday morning after the passage of the significant winter storm, the vast majority of the area will fall into the teens and 20s. Areas under a decent snowpack could even fall into the single digits.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the high/low temperature charts for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!