Good morning everyone! We are tracking our next disturbance that will swing through the area starting this afternoon and especially tonight. Current radar (as of 10:00am CST) depicts some light snow/flurry activity entering the far western portions of ND. However, this system is working against dry air as of now, so it is highly unlikely that any of the precipitation shown in this area is reaching the ground. As we work in this moisture, the lower-levels of the atmosphere will saturate (dynamic cooling) and allow for the snows to reach the surface.
Simulated radar through 3pm CST today: The disturbance from Southern Canada will continue to push southeastward across portions of ND into the early afternoon hours with snows reaching the surface by the time this loop ends (3pm). As stated previously, the dry air is initially inhibiting this system so it will take some time for snows to hit the ground.
Simulated radar from 6pm CST today through 6am CST Tuesday: Scattered snow coverage gradually increases across the state of ND through the evening hours. Northern MN will gradually work in these scattered snows mainly after 6pm EST this evening. During the overnight hours, snows will continue across ND (though losing coverage) while northern MN gains scattered snow coverage. Portions of western SD will observe scattered patches of light snow showers/flurries as the snows work southward from western ND. As we progress into Monday morning, light snows will be located across portions of eastern MN (possibly far southern MN pending dry air influences) while very light snow showers remain in the western Dakotas. Light snow showers will lift off to the east with the main disturbance out of eastern MN by the noon hour Monday while light snows in the western Dakotas gradually lose coverage. A few leftover patches of flurries are possible across the region heading into Monday evening/night. Another quick-hitting disturbance will swing southeastward into northeastern ND and far northwestern MN early Tuesday morning.
This wave of scattered snow showers will likely put down light snow accumulations on the order of ~0.5″ or less for most locations across ND and northern/eastern MN. A few more consistent bands of snow could lead to pockets of 1″+ within the circled regions below before all is set and done. A coating of snow is also possible in portions of western SD. This will be a dry/fine snow so it will be easy to get these minor accumulations. Definitely be wary of any slick spots on the roadways.
The next disturbance will lift into northeastern ND and northwestern MN early Tuesday morning before progressing southeastward across the remainder of northern MN through the mid afternoon hours. This system will move at a quick pace, so most of the activity will have exited by late afternoon with only light flurries remaining in these areas. Snow accumulations with this system will also be minor with around 1″ of snow possible.
Here’s a look at 7-day precipitation totals across the region: In general, precipitation through the period will remain rather light with the majority of the region receiving less than 0.25″ of liquid. The best chances for precipitation through this period will be across northern MN due to tonight’s disturbance and Tuesday’s light snows. Thanksgiving day is expected to remain overall dry with no problems expected.
Here’s a look at high and low temperatures over the next four days: Highs today will remain on the chilly side once again with many across ND into MN remaining in the 20s. Even a few teens are possible across the far northern portions of MN. Heading into Monday, another reinforcing shot of cold air from Canada will bring widespread teens for highs in portions of ND and northern MN. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the teens and 20s area-wide with even some isolated locations across northeastern ND falling into the single digits (some may dip below 0ºF). Cold overnight lows linger into Monday night with near 30º over the far western portions of the Dakotas to below 0ºF in parts of northern MN.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Generally, winds will remain relatively light with gusts upwards of 25mph. It won’t be until Tuesday when winds pick up across the eastern two-thirds of the area, bring gusts around 30mph at times (especially near Lake Superior).
Here’s a look at the 10 day city charts for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!