Good morning everyone! The vast majority of the snows have finally exited the region to the east with only a few light flurries possible in northeastern MO over the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, it is dry but we are watching a weak disturbance lifting through the southern portions of MO as of 8:30am CST that is bringing a wave of light rain showers/drizzle. This will be the main feature to watch as we progress through the day into tonight.
Definitely a change in pace expected today as cloud cover over KS and MO slowly progresses south and eastward. To the north, ample amounts of sunshine will be prevalent across NE and IA. This will help to sublimate (solid to gas) some of the snow cover even though temperatures will largely remain below freezing. Southeastern KS into southern MO will hang on to the cloud cover through the duration of the day with shower chances continuing in southern MO.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Monday: Flurry activity exits northeastern MO this morning while we watch the patch of light rains/drizzle slowly work across the southern portions of MO into tonight. This wave will gradually lift eastward and pull the bulk of the activity out of southeastern MO by 6am CST Monday. Given some low-level saturation lingering even behind this disturbance, we can’t rule out patchy drizzle remaining in southeastern MO even through Monday morning. Elsewhere, a weak disturbance from the Northern Plains will clip the northern portions of NE/IA tonight bringing very light rain/snow chances. However, there will be plenty of dry air with this wave so most of the precipitation that falls from the clouds will evaporate before reaching the surface. A few patches of fog are possible in far eastern MO Monday morning before dissipating late morning.
Total precipitation through 6am CST Monday: Liquid amounts will remain fairly light with the weak wave across southern MO, with roughly 0.2″ of liquid expected. Depending on whether precipitation in northern NE/IA reaches the ground, only a trace to 0.05″ at best of liquid is to be anticipated. All other areas will remain dry through tonight.
Very light shower/flurry chances will remain in NE and IA through the day Monday, but many will largely be unaffected. An additional disturbance from the Northern Plains will sideswipe eastern IA Monday that could lead to a few light snow showers. Dry air will remain an inhibiting factor with this system. Cloud cover will increase across the area Monday, but a mix of sun and clouds can still be expected for many. Here’s the simulated radar from 6am CST Monday through 6am CST Tuesday:
Here’s a look at total precipitation from various model solutions through the next 7 days: As shown below, there is quite a bit of model variance as three of the four shown depict little precipitation across KS and NE while the European (on average the most accurate model) shows a system bring a wave of rain starting Thursday night. The other models are not on board with this solution, and develop this wave further east across IA and MO (though rather weak) before it lifts into the OHV. This forecast will need to be fine-tuned as we progress into the work-week. Thanksgiving day is expected to remain dry with increasing cloud cover across NE and KS.
High temperatures over the next four days: It continues to remain chilly in IA today with most not warming above freezing. Elsewhere, highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s will be common. High temperatures warm slightly heading into Monday with KS and MO warming well into the 40s while the northern portions of NE/IA remain in the 30s. The High Plains will warm in Tuesday due to southerly wind flow on the western side of a high pressure system, resulting in daytime highs in the 50s.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: A cold airmass will remain in place across the region with low temperatures dropping into the 20s for most locations Monday morning. With the fresh snow cover in southeastern NE and southern IA, some places will likely fall into the teens. Cold overnight lows in the 20s will be prevalent once again Tuesday morning with a slight moderation in the upper 20s to mid 30s expected Wednesday morning.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will remain fairly light (gusts upwards of 25mph at times) through the period as high pressure settles into the area.
Here’s a look at the high/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!