Hey everyone! Thanks for checking out today’s winter threat blog. Today’s blog will touch-up on how we are trending with snowfall already compared to this time last year, and look at the interesting storm tracks that have been setting up in the past few weeks which could be telling of the winter pattern showing up. Not to mention – we have a potential winter storm setting-up mid to late week for parts of the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys, and especially the Northeast. An impressive early season event is looking likely.
Interesting to note how much more snow has fallen already this fall compared to last year. Amarillo, TX has already beat their snowfall from all of last winter….and its not even winter yet! Shreveport, LA experienced light snow this morning! Check out the difference from this time last year!
Temperatures month to date are running below normal for a large portion of the country…..the central and northern Plains are running 6-10º below normal:
I mentioned how we continue to see these storm tracks setting up from the Gulf coast to the East coast….it’s easy to see our storm track by looking at the upper-level heights so far this month….we’ve seen an amplified or “meridional” jet stream pattern with a large trough over the central U.S, with storms riding on the periphery of that from the Gulf coast, Ohio Valley, and East Coast where the polar front and subtropical jet streams collide. If we carry this pattern into winter….that’s where it could get interesting!
The latest data continues to show an “intriguing” look to the pattern for snow lovers in the central and eastern U.S. as we head through December.
We are watching an upper-level low that will work from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into the Ohio Valley tomorrow night and Thursday. The system’s energy will then transfer east into a strong East Coast storm. This system will be moving into an area where there is still a decent amount of cold air in place, and this system will produce it’s own pocket of cold air to produce a swath of wintry weather. That is why this upper-level low more winter weather potential than if it was a “normal” November with warmer temperatures.
This looks to be one heck of a November snow event from northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas through Southeast Missouri, west Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana. It’s all about exactly where the “deformation band” sets-up, depending upon the low-pressure track.
Here is our current snowfall risk map for this event. Certainly favoring southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky for the heaviest snows in the eastern Ag Belt, then another swath of significant wintry precipitation across the interior Northeast.
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We’ll plan on our next blog coming up on Thursday to talk about all things winter! If you or your business deals with snow removal, you are watching the forecast closely as we head into winter. We can offer you can an accurate forecast with attention to detail, certified snow totals after a storm, and 24/7 on-call support!! Inquire today at bamwx.com/contact-us.
-Nathan Kitchens
