Today’s video:
In general, snow accumulations will remain under the threshold for Winter Weather Advisory standards across the region, but we do note several counties in southwestern IL (St. Louis Metro area) that are currently under this advisory until 9pm CST Monday:
We continue to target our first more widespread accumulating snowfall potential later today through tonight from west to east. Hi-res models have been very consistent on this event which is shown below. Overall this isn’t going to be a “pack a punch”, “whiteout” kind of an event but more like “slow and steady” (brief reduction in visibility is possible, however). Looks like snow moves into IL around the noon hour, ~4-5pm for western IN, ~8pm for NW OH. On the backside of this system we will increase the risks for lake effect snow showers across north/east IN, southern MI, and northern OH (a couple of these bands may be locally heavy). Areas along and south of the Ohio River pose a risk for this to be just scattered rain showers:
Here’s our latest forecast regarding snowfall accumulations through this event; a few areas from LaPorte to Elkhart counties may see localized ~2-3″+ of lake effect snow. Otherwise we’ve lowered totals just slightly very yesterday in the purple band to ~0.5-1.5″, and the outside light blue color to less than 1″. Also important to note that given temps today will be in the upper 30s to near 40 before the snow moves in, some of this will initially melt on contact with the pavement before accumulating becomes possible:
We do also have concern Tuesday morning for black ice and slick spot issues on untreated surfaces as temps drop widespread into the upper teens west to 20s east. If you have zero tolerance lots we recommending keep close eyes on the refreeze-risks here. We think the eastern half of IN into OH holds in clouds on Tuesday…as you can see with the temp forecasts below many of us stay in the upper 20s to lower 30s for highs on Tuesday as well, so quite frigid:
High pressure settles in Tuesday into Wednesday with our weather quieting down. However, all eyes turn to Thursday as an upper-level low pressure system swings into the Ohio Valley, with our data increasing our odds at accumulating snowfall potential. There’s still a lot of details that need ironed out with this event, upper-level lows can be very tricky in terms of moisture, cold air, etc…but if this solution pans out as suggest, there will likely be an impressive band of moderate to heavier snow potential on the backside of the low pressure system. Check back often on this:
Total precipitation the next 7 days from the European model is below…again, there still is some uncertainty in the evolution of the upper-level low pressure system on Thursday which could fluctuate moisture amounts:
High temperatures over the next 4 days…December-like air settling in this week widespread:
Low temperatures over the next 4 days:
Wind forecast over the next 4 days: Not an overly windy week…a bit breezy over the next 2 days but gusts only around 20mph expected.
