Good morning everyone! Most of the region remains precipitation-free as of 6:15am CST. However, we are noting an area of snow showers impacting the far southwestern portions of the NE Panhandle into northern CO/southeastern WY. We expect this batch of snow to slowly progress southeastward with snow activity expanding into western KS as the morning progresses and especially the afternoon hours.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued in advance of our incoming winter storm with most of these areas receiving at least a few inches of snow before all is set and done. These areas include southwestern KS through portions of northeastern KS excluding the Kansas City Metro. Please note the timing for when these advisories will expire below. As stated in the 4-panels, winds are expected to gust 25-30 mph today and tomorrow, which will allow for blowing snow as well as reduced visibilities. Due to these circumstances, travel will likely be hazardous with slick roads expected.
The best coverage for snow this afternoon and evening will be located over KS due to better dynamics and forcing. We note an area of strong frontogenesis in the state that signifies the development of a boundary and hence lift. This will promote snow development in the clouds that will eventually reach the surface. Warm air advection is another factor supporting snows in KS as it can enhance lift as well.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Monday: Light snows gain coverage across the western two-thirds of KS during the day today. Light rain showers will likely develop along the eastern periphery in eastern KS this afternoon and especially during the evening hours. NE and IA will virtually remain clear of this precipitation through the duration of the event, but we can’t rule out some light snows clipping the far southern portions of these states. As we advance into the nighttime hours, the snows will gradually lose coverage and intensity as the activity progresses across the eastern third of KS into northern MO. Areas of light rain showers will be possible in southern MO. The vast majority of this convection will fade by Monday morning as it works across eastern MO, but will be replaced with another batch of snows that develops across northern TX, northwestern OK and southern KS.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Monday through 6am CST Tuesday: The new development of snows across southern KS will work eastward through the morning hours Monday, progressing into the southern two-thirds of MO. This activity gradually pulls east during the day Monday, with a bulk of the precipitation exiting eastern KS by 6pm CST Monday and MO by 6am CST Tuesday. Rain showers on the southern periphery of these snows are likely, mainly in southeastern MO during the day Monday.
Here’s an updated graphic for total snowfall through Monday night: A general swath of 1-3″ of snow will run across the states of KS and MO (excluding far northern MO and the Bootheel). There is a corridor in southern KS that is expected to receive higher amounts of snow on the order of 2-5″. Most model guidance is in agreement with these amounts through this period, except the NAM12km which depicts even higher amounts. While the NAM12km is likely too aggressive with its solution (a common fault with the NAMs), we can’t rule out some isolated locations receiving 5-6″+ of snow. Temperatures will be marginal with the first batch of snow across KS today, with many staying at or just above freezing. This will allow for a slower accumulation process, but still allow for slick spots to develop. Definitely be mindful of the weather if traveling through Monday night across the southern portions of the region.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days via the European Model: The bulk of the precipitation through this timeframe will fall today into Monday across portions of KS and MO. After this storm system, a drier mid to late work week is in store with a potential light event in eastern MO Thursday. Next weekend is looking to be a pleasant weekend with mainly dry weather expected. Areas across NE and IA will remain rather dry through this duration.
High temperatures over the next four days: Today’s high temperatures will range from the 30s north and west to the 40s in MO and southern IA. Following behind our incoming storm system will be colder temperatures once again with 20s for highs in NE and IA while lower 30s will be more prominent in KS and MO.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Monday morning lows will drop into the 20s for many locations, excluding southern MO. The northwest portions of IA may dip even further into the teens. We’ll work in another arctic blast Tuesday morning which will produce low temperatures will into the teens again across a large sum of the region. Single digit temperatures will once again be on tap in some locations, especially in northern IA and places that have fresh snow cover.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will remain generally light across the area, though wind gusts upwards of 25-30mph in southern KS through Monday will allow for some of the snow to blow around and reduce visibilities. Behind the storm Tuesday, winds will be light with higher pressure overhead.
Looking ahead through the next 10 days via the European Model, our colder pattern lingers until mid-week when we introduce some moderation
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!