Good morning everyone! The disturbance last night has lifted out of the region but we are tracking the next disturbance that is pushing through the Dakotas as of 6:10am CST. As shown in the second graphic, the current temperatures across the region are quite cold, with many experiencing snow currently only in the teens. Locations further east are even colder with some in northern MN dipping below 0ºF this morning. This will result in a dry, fluffy snow that will easily accumulate as this system works through.
The energy associated with this disturbance is over the Dakotas this morning, bringing accumulating snows to these areas, especially ND. The system will be battling more dry air further south across SD, so accumulations will be harder to come by as precipitation struggles to reach the surface. However, with enough dynamic cooling, northern SD can work in some time slots where the snow will reach the ground, leading to light accumulations. This disturbance will follow the upper-air flow to the east and bring snow risks to MN this afternoon into tonight.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Sunday: We watch a wave of snow move west to east across the region, persisting through the daytime hours in ND pushing into MN after 12pm CST this afternoon. The northern portions of SD and the Blackhills will also work in some light snow activity as this system progresses through the day. Drier air will be found across SD, especially the southern portions, so steadier, accumulating snows will be harder to observe. By Sunday morning, the main bulk of the snows will have departed to the east of the region. However, scattered light snows will be lingering in northern/northeastern MN.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Sunday through 12pm CST Monday: Scattered snow chances will remain in northern MN through the duration of Sunday, bringing additional light snow accumulations. Elsewhere, a lack of sufficient energy will keep most places dry with just lingering pockets of clouds. There will be a weak pulse of energy clipping western SD Sunday evening into Sunday night that may bring a few flurries to the area, but plentiful dry air will keep it most of the precipitation from reaching the surface.
Here’s an updated graphic for total additional snowfall through Sunday night: The heaviest accumulations still continue to fall across north-central/northeastern ND before weakening in intensity somewhat across MN this afternoon into tonight. Accumulations of 1-3″ will be widespread across a majority of ND and northern MN while greater snow coverage in north-central/northeastern ND will lead to additional snowfall of 2-4″. We can’t rule out isolated higher amounts in areas that observe heavier bands of snow. As you progress southward, snow accumulations lessen with the far southern portions of the region receiving very little to no snow due to drier air dominating. Definitely be wary of slick spots if you are heading out today and tomorrow! Please note that most of this snow comes through tonight with additional light accumulations (accounted for in the graphic) falling in northern MN Sunday.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days via the European Model: Following this system, higher pressure works into the area with the first half of next week quiet. Most disturbances will stay clear of the area, impacting locations further north across central Saskatchewan/Manitoba. The European does bring in a weak system Thursday night into Friday that the other models do not depict. Regardless, it will be something to watch going forward.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Highs today will struggle to get out of the lower 20s in the far eastern Dakotas into MN. Another blast of Canadian air will slide into the region Monday that will result in many across ND and northern MN failing to exceed 20ºF. Overnight lows will also be quite chilly for this time of year with most in ND dipping into the teens tonight while elsewhere falls into the lower 20s. Sunday and especially Monday night will be even colder with many overnight lows Monday night dropping into the single digits. Wind chills Sunday and Monday morning will fall below 0ºF at times across portions of the region, especially ND and northwestern MN. Note, low temperatures may drop lower than model guidance due to fresh snow cover.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: The strongest winds today will be found in western SD where gusts upwards of 35-40mph will be common. Elsewhere, gusts to 25mph will help to lower visibilities and blow some snow around. Winds will gradually decrease early work week.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis: A period of moderation is coming late work week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!