Good morning everyone! The region is precipitation-free this morning with just some upper-level clouds traversing the northern portions of the region. On satellite imagery sometimes it can be difficult to pick out between cloud cover and snow. Snows remain on the ground this morning across north-central KS, northeastern MO and southeastern IA. Temperatures last night also took a nose dive due to the passage of the arctic front and fresh snow cover. Many areas as of 9:35am CST are still well into the teens with 20s across the High Plains and the southern areas. There were several observations this morning where temperatures fell into the single digits across IA.
A virtually dry day is in store for the area with high pressure settled overhead. There will be a storm system traversing the Northern Plains today that could clip the northern portions of IA with light snow showers. However, given the extent of dry air at the surface, most of this precipitation will have a difficult time reaching the ground. Instead, upper-level clouds will dominate the state as well as NE. A lack of energy and drier air will promote clearer skies across the southern areas.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Sunday: Very light snow showers clip the northern portions of IA this afternoon and evening, bringing at best a very light coating of snow. There is a high probability that most of this fails to reach the surface, but we can’t rule out some snowflakes overcoming the dry slot in the lower-levels and making it to the ground. These light snow showers exit by 12am CST tonight while the rest of the area remains dry today. We’ll begin to watch the early impacts of our next storm system lift into the High Plains late tonight into Monday morning that will bring areas of light snow showers.
Sunday morning will likely feature the development of patchy fog across central KS due to the recent snows, weakening winds and partially clear skies. Temperatures will drop well below freezing during this time, so freezing fog risks will be present. Any areas of freezing fog in the state Sunday morning will gradually erode as the morning progresses.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Sunday through 6pm CST Monday: Light snows gain coverage across the western two-thirds of KS during the day Sunday. Light rain showers will likely develop along the eastern periphery in eastern KS Sunday evening. During the nighttime hours, the snows will gradually lose coverage and intensity as it progresses across eastern KS into northern MO. Light rain showers will be possible in southern MO. This convection will have faded by Monday morning and will be replaced with another batch of snows from TX and OK that clips the southern portions of KS Monday and the southern two-thirds of MO from late Monday morning through early Monday night. It is important to note that there are still some model guidance that keeps these snows slightly further south than what is depicted below as well as weaker. This is one of the more robust solutions (a common fault with the NAM models).
Here’s a quick look at our first snowfall map for this event, running from Sunday morning through the day Monday: This map was created on a general consensus between the different models and that a general swath of 1-3″ is likely across the southern two-thirds of KS into portions of southern MO (excluding the Bootheel). There is a corridor in southern KS that can pick up 2-4″ of snow but this region will need to be fine-tuned heading into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be marginal with the first batch of snow across KS Sunday into Sunday night, with many staying just above freezing. This will allow for a slower accumulating process, but will still allow for slick spots to develop.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days via the European Model: The bulk of the precipitation through this timeframe will fall Sunday into Monday across portions of KS and MO. After this storm system, a drier mid to late work week is in store with a potential light event clipping IA Friday. Next weekend is also looking to be a pleasant weekend with moderating temperatures and dry weather.
High temperatures over the next four days: With southerly winds today, the western portions of KS will likely feature the warmest temperatures (highs into the 50s). Elsewhere, snow cover and the recent passage of the arctic front will keep temperatures from rising too much (20s and 30s expected). Sunday’s highs will range from the 30s north and west to the 40s in MO. Following behind our next storm system will be colder temperatures once again with 20s for highs in NE and IA while 30s will be more prominent south.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Following this morning’s very cold temperatures, Sunday morning will continue to feature lows well into the 20s with even upper teens likely back in the picture across portions of IA (model guidance possibly underestimating cold). We’ll work in another arctic blast Tuesday morning which will produce low temperatures well into the teens again across a large sum of the region, excluding southern MO and the High Plains where 20s are more likely.
Wind forecast over the next four days: The strongest winds through this period will be observed today with gusts upwards of 40mph at times across southwestern KS. Further north and east, winds will remain lighter but still gust to 25mph. Behind the storm system Tuesday, winds will be generally light with higher pressure overhead.
Looking ahead through the next 10 days via the European Model, our colder pattern lingers until mid-week when we start to work in some moderation.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!