Thanks for checking out today’s winter threat assessment blog! We thought it would be fun to take a look at the various winter forecasts (there are many, many out there), but we’ll take a look at several big weather vendors and how they compare to our winter forecast.
First off, here are the important pattern drivers we are watching heading into winter. It’s not as simple as assuming all El Nino’s are similar. There is a lot to consider including the strength (strong vs. weak El Nino) and LOCATION of warmest waters in the Pacific. This is a huge deal. For further details on these, check out this previous blog for more discussion on what these pattern drivers are and how they will impact the upcoming winter. http://ow.ly/nF5c30msBkS
I wanted to start off by showing off our winter forecast. Our analogs for the winter favor a colder central and eastern U.S. We also think an active subtropical jet into the southern U.S. (typical of El Nino) can allow for a snowy winter from the Ohio Valley to the southern states. This will make snow lovers (like me) a bit excited.
Let’s take a look at some of the many winter forecasts out there! Allan Huffman of Raleigh Weather recently issued their winter outlook. They follow a similar theme as ours with a colder than normal forecast for the Ohio Valley south to the Gulf Coast states, and some warmer than normal in the Pacific Northwest. They also forecast above normal snow across Deep South, Ohio/Tennessee Valley, and the mid-Atlantic.
The Weather Channel just issued their outlook, also following a similar theme of a colder than normal winter across the southeast U.S., and a mild winter for much of the West.
WeatherBell Analytics winter outlook looks very similar with a very cold winter for the East, and well above normal snowfall in the Deep South.
WeatherWorks also follows the theme of cold southeast and warmer north/west for the upcoming winter. They forecast a snowy winter up the East Coast with a “few close calls” in the Ohio Valley with temperatures fluctuating near to below normal.
I think it’s very interesting that these major weather firms are following a similar forecast to ours. Here’s a look at some additional outlooks which differ a bit from our outlook at the outlooks just discussed.
FirsthandWeather.com’s forecast calls for a very cold and snowy winter for much of the Ag Belt, with increased icing events for the mid-South. Looks like they are banking on an idea of a more active northern jet stream with clipper systems.
Then there’s the Old Farmer’s Almanac – their outlook calls for a warm winter for most of the continental U.S. along with above normal precipitation in the Eastern U.S. and west coast.
The Farmers Almanac – separate from the Old Farmers Almanac, calls for “teeth-chattering cold, plentiful snow” for the Ag Belt, and “Biting Cold, Snowy” in the Ohio Valley. Not sure how you quantify the difference from “biting cold” and “teeth-chattering cold.”
NOAA calls for warmer temperatures throughout much of the country. They are forecasting above normal precipitation along the Gulf Coast, with drier conditions in the northern tier. They seem to be following the general pattern during an El Nino.
What are the seasonal models showing? We’ve noted many models have been biased too warm with sea-surface temperatures which is likely skewing their forecasts. However, there are several major long-range models in agreement with our forecast. The United Kingdom model (UKMET), European (ECMWF), and JMA (Japanese) models all go cold.
For fun, here is the UKMET model’s snowfall anomaly forecast for February (courtesy of bennollweather.com).
Just as we find several models going cold this winter, we find several models that overall disagree with our forecast and have a much warmer outcome for the winter.
We’ll have our next blog coming up on Tuesday to talk about all things winter! If you or your business deals with snow removal, you are watching the forecast closely as we head into winter. We can offer you can an accurate forecast with attention to detail, certified snow totals after a storm, and 24/7 on-call support!! Inquire today at bamwx.com/contact-us.
For those in the energy and natural gas industry, we are still running a FREE trial of our energy subscriptions through tomorrow! Simply sign-up at bamwx.com/trial to get a feel for what our service can offer you! You can also receive GWHDD’s straight to your e-mail as the data comes in!! Our service will keep you on top of the trends.
-Nathan Kitchens
