Good afternoon everyone! A shortwave trough progressing quickly southeastward through the region is producing areas of light rain across the Dakotas and even some elevated storms in the western portions of these states as of 4:40pm CDT. Enough warming has taken place today to allow the freezing drizzle earlier to transition back to rain, but we actually have enough cold air in place in portions of northeastern ND where snow showers are currently impacting. This system will gradually work southeastward through the remainder of the evening into tonight, producing some light snow accumulations in portions of eastern ND into northwestern MN.
Here’s the setup heading into the overnight hours, rain coverage will gradually exit the western Dakotas further into the night with the greatest supply of upper-level energy lifting into eastern SD. This is where we expect the highest shower coverage with even a couple storms still hanging around but slowly weakening by this point. Colder air pushing into eastern ND and northwestern MN will allow some locations to transition to snow that lingers into Friday morning.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Friday: Rain showers progress southeastward across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the course of the night with a changeover to some snow likely in portions of eastern ND and northwestern MN. Off to the west in the western Dakotas, the continued development of scattered showers and elevated storms are likely before gradually fading late this evening into early night. By 7am CDT Friday morning, areas of light shower activity will be persisting in far eastern SD into southern MN while snow showers linger in northwestern MN and far eastern ND. The areas impacted by snow showers will likely see some light snow accumulations. A recent trend over the last several hours is to push the transition to snow further northwest into eastern ND as well (initial confirmation based on radar). This has resulted in our forecasted areas for snow to shift slightly further north and west. However, the HRRR model is set on the idea of patchy light snow accumulations only in central MN, something to keep in mind. Also during the morning hours Friday, some patchy fog may develop in the eastern Dakotas before gradually eroding late morning.
Simulated radar from 10am CDT Friday through 1am CDT Sunday: We’ll work out the areas of light rain south and light snow north across the eastern Dakotas during the morning hours Friday with areas of light showers still continuing in southern MN through the day. Some light snow may mix in at times, especially areas further north. The next system will start to work in after 12pm CDT Friday in western ND and bring another round of rain and accumulating snow to the area. This will bring a wider, heavier swath of snow given more frontal forcing and colder air. At first, the precipitation may start out as rain in ND but dynamic cooling will allow for the rains to transition to snow with time across the state Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rains are more likely further south in SD but even the northern portions of the state will see a changeover to snow with time Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow showers may reach as far south as the SD/NE border Saturday night. To the east, the NAM models are slightly more aggressive with snow chances in the northern half of MN Saturday and Saturday night with rains more likely further south. This is something to keep in mind and we may trend snowier with our snowfall map with time in northern MN.
Here’s the latest snowfall map for the upcoming disturbance starting Friday afternoon: The greatest focus for snows will be in ND and northern SD from Friday afternoon through the day Saturday where 2-5″ of snow is possible, especially in western ND. Another area to watch is north-central/northeastern MN where snows pick back up Saturday into Sunday. There is a corridor noted in northwestern MN where accumulating snowfall is not depicted. This is a result of low confidence due to different solutions from various models. As previously stated, the NAM models are more aggressive in northern MN and this will need to be watched closely.
Total precipitation through 1am CDT Sunday: A general 0.25-0.75″ of liquid is expected from western ND southeastward through southern MN. Localized pockets of around 1″ are possible where the heaviest rains and/or snow banding sets up. A large portion of the precipitation depicted will come with our second disturbance starting Friday afternoon.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!