Good morning everyone! Another soggy day is on tap for a large portion of the region. Areas of showers and storms can be currently found in KS, northern MO and eastern IA. Expect these rains to head northeastward through the day along a sharp temperature gradient with additional heavy showers and storms pushing in from the south.
A large section of the area (KS, MO, IA and southeastern NE today, then KS, IA and the eastern half of NE tomorrow) will continue to have the potential for excessive rainfall that may lead to flash flooding from the storms developing and persisting along a frontal boundary. Central KS is looking to be the hardest hit as multiple disturbances train over the area. This is not a threat to take lightly as flooding is a real possibility at locations hit by the heaviest storms.
Flash Flood Watches have been issued by the National Weather Service across central KS into southeastern MO where repeated rounds of showers and storms will likely lead to localized flash flooding. These watches may expand further into eastern NE and portions of IA with time.
There is a threat for severe weather today, mainly in southeastern KS into MO where an ample moisture stream along with decent wind shear could lead to a few rotating storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple isolated tornadoes. Many models highlight a possible bowing segment working through the marginal risk area (especially in MO) this afternoon and evening.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday: Please try not to focus on the exact location of where the model depicts these storms as subtle differences to reality are likely as models will have a tough time pinpointing these rains. Either way…numerous areas of heavy showers and storms will progress through a large sum of the region today, especially KS and MO this morning and gradually central/eastern NE into IA as the day progresses. Enough destabilization in southeastern KS into MO could lead to additional scattered strong storm development the works through portions of central/southern MO this afternoon and evening. During the nighttime hours, heavy showers and storms are likely to persist/develop in western/central KS and lift into a majority of NE late tonight into tomorrow morning. IA will also see heavy convection lift back in late tonight/tomorrow morning. The state of MO may begin to clear out the heaviest precipitation tonight, but isolated storm chances will remain.
Here’s the general idea of the setup going into the day Monday: The central portions of the region will likely observe repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms as energy flows parallel to the upper-air flow (SSW to NNE), allowing for heavy rainfall amounts to likely accumulate in the circled region.
Another favorable setup for strong to severe storms is likely in portions of KS through western IA Monday as multiple shortwaves work along the eastern periphery of the upper-level low positioned to our west. Ingredients for this setup include ample lift, a strong low-level jet pumping in moisture that also results in warm-air advection (warmer air lifting into a region). This will likely result in a few supercells initially with a slight tornado threat before a more linear mode with bowing segments becomes prominent with damaging winds and large hail.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Multiple rounds of heavy showers and strong storms will work SSW to NNE across KS, the eastern half of NE, western IA and possibly far northwestern MO through much of this period. The time for the strongest storms will come Monday afternoon and evening, but due to the dynamics at hand, a few strong storms are possible at any time. The setup shown below can lead to a heightened flooding risk as storms train over similar areas.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Tuesday: Heavy rainfall amounts of 2-4″ will likely develop across central KS, portions of eastern NE and western IA. Localized 4″+ will be likely where the heaviest storms develop, track and persist. Pockets of 1-2″ of rain is also possible with the storms today in MO and eastern IA. Please note that the heavy rains in KS may be slightly too far west.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: Heavy doses of rain are expected across a good majority of the Central Plains with widespread 2-6″ of rain likely spanning from KS into IA, eastern NE and the northwestern half of MO. Localized pockets of 6″+ will be likely where the heaviest showers and storms set up. Rainfall amounts will be at their lightest across southeastern MO, but even these areas will observe at least scattered storm development. The majority of these rains will fall through mid-week.
High temperatures over the next four days: Warmer air will lift northward beginning today and especially Monday as a warm front progresses northward.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Frost and freeze risks are on the table across the NE panhandle Monday and Tuesday morning.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days: More humid air lifts northward Monday.
Wind guidance over the next four days:
High/low temperature charts over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!