Good morning everyone! The vast majority of the region will remain dry today as an area of surface high pressure situated over the northern portions of the area will help to suppress rain risks to the south. However, we can’t rule out an isolated shower making it as far north as far southeastern SD and the MN/IA border.
The next best chance for precipitation will arrive late tonight across the western third of SD and eventually the rest of the region into Sunday. Precipitation will likely start off as rain in the western Dakotas before a transition to snow occurs as a result of dynamic cooling. While current indications point towards the snows remaining rather unimpressive, exception being the Black Hills, light, wet snow accumulations are likely. Depending on how long it takes for the transition to snow to occur, snow may have a difficult time sticking to the roads, but definitely expect some slick roads at least.
Simulated radar from 10pm CDT tonight through 7am CDT Monday: Our next disturbance lifts into western SD after 1am CDT, bringing rain showers to the area. Scattered, light shower activity will also be making its way north into southeastern SD and far southern MN tonight as well, but with drier slots in the atmosphere this convection may not even reach the surface. Rain activity will become more widespread across the Dakotas as Sunday progresses with a transition to snow expected to occur across portions of the western Dakotas. Showers will become more common across western MN Sunday evening and spreading further throughout the state Sunday night. Areas of snow will continue across portions of ND and the western third of SD overnight.
Total precipitation through 7am CDT Monday: The precipitation over the western Dakotas takes into any rain that falls and melted snow. Shower activity further east in the eastern Dakotas into MN where drop a general 0.1-0.5″ of rain with locally higher amounts, mainly in southeastern MN.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: Multiple disturbances will ride along and north of a temperature gradient situated over the Central Plains, which will impact the Northern Plains through the period. Precipitation amounts that include rain and melted snow will total 1-3″ for a majority of the region. Localized precipitation amounts of 3″+ are possible, especially in southeastern MN where the heaviest rains will be located. A potential big snowmaker is in the cards for the western two-thirds of the Dakotas mid-week as another strong disturbance pushes through the region. The details regarding these possible snows will be ironed out as the event nears.
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs will struggle to make it out of the 30s today across portions of ND and northern MN. Increased precipitation chances across the western Dakotas Sunday will also hinder temperatures.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows in the 30s will be widespread across the Northern Plains tonight, with the exception being southeastern MN where 40s are more likely.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days:
Wind guidance over the next four days: Higher pressure will generally keep the winds lighter over the region today.
High/low temperature charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!