Good morning everyone! Heavy rains have definitely left many places soggy/wet last night into this morning from eastern IA southwestward into central KS. Rain coverage has waned some in eastern IA where very heavy storms left inundating rains with a few flash flood warnings in effect. This is not the same story to the southwest where a decent band of heavy showers and storms persist in southern IA, northwestern MO and the eastern half of KS as of 6:25am CDT.
Portions of the area (eastern KS into MO today/KS, the northwestern half of MO, and IA tomorrow) will continue to have the potential for excessive rainfall that may lead to flash flooding from the storms developing and persisting along a frontal boundary. Areas of southern and eastern KS will likely be the hardest hit with the storms developing in the Southern Plains and lifting into the state.
Here’s the general idea going through the course of today into tonight. The storms in the area will begin to lose some coverage today as we lose the influence from the low-level jet. However, with a frontal boundary remaining in the area, there will likely be enough lift to keep showers and storms around. This likely won’t have the same coverage as the storms last night into this morning. It won’t be until this evening into tonight that heavy shower and storm coverage picks back up as a result of the low-level jet restrengthening. The jet will be strongest in eastern KS and the northwest half of MO, but anywhere in the circled region below will see rains.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday: The heavy band of showers and storms impacting the central portions of the region will slowly migrate south and eastward through the day across eastern KS, northern/western MO and southern/eastern IA. Coverage will wane some starting late this morning but areas of showers and storms will persist across the eastern two-thirds of KS, MO, and southern/eastern IA. The far southeastern portions of NE will likely get clipped. A weak disturbance will bring light shower activity to the NE panhandle this evening into tonight. Also, after around 7pm CDT, storm coverage will grow with that strengthening low-level jet and bring heavy showers and storms once again to eastern KS, the northwestern half of MO and southern IA with some isolated activity in southeastern MO. While not a large threat, given ample moisture and wind shear, some of the storms may become strong to severe in the region with damaging winds and hail. Convection lingering throughout the day will likely limit how much destabilization can occur, hence the minimal threat. An isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: Numerous shower and storm activity will continue over a large portion of the region as the frontal boundary lifts further north. Sunday morning convection over portions of KS, the northwestern half of MO, and southern/eastern IA will progress northward through the day, bringing impacts to the eastern half of NE and the rest of IA. Redevelopment further south is anticipated Sunday evening/night across KS and MO with heavy shower and storm coverage increasing across KS as the night progresses into Monday morning. NE and western IA will see these heavy rains lift into their areas early Monday morning.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: Repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms are anticipated across the region, increasing the threat for flash flooding. Additional portions of NE will receive heavy rainfall amounts during the day Monday. Most areas will observe at least measurable rainfall with the circled region receiving a large sum of the heaviest rains.
Here’s a look at 7 day rainfall from the European Model: Heavy doses of rain are expected across a good majority of the Central Plains with widespread 3-6″ of rain likely spanning from central KS into IA and eastern NE. Localized pockets of 6″+ will be likely where the heaviest showers and storms set up. Rainfall amounts will be at their lightest across southeastern MO, but even these areas will observe at least scattered storm development.
High temperatures over the next four days: Warmer air will lift northward beginning Sunday and especially Monday as a warm front progresses northward.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Additional frost risks are on the table across northern NE and northwestern IA Sunday morning.
Dew points over the next four days: More humid air lifts northward Monday.
Wind guidance over the next four days:
High/low temperature charts for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!