Today’s Video:
Good morning everyone! We are tracking widely scattered showers and storms across KS and northern MO as of 8:35am CDT. Storm coverage will remain widely scattered in the region through the mid-afternoon hours before a complex of heavy, strong storms draped southwest to northeast develops and persists into the night.
A cold front from the northwest and a remaining boundary draped in the central portions of the region today will spark new development late this afternoon and evening in the form of a strong complex from southwestern KS northeastward into eastern IA. Ample moisture along with decent instability and a strong low-level jet will provide an environment suitable for portions of the complex that develops in the region to become strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially during the early phases of the event. Heavy rainfall is likely as this boundary barely moves tonight into tomorrow morning.
Simulated radar through 1pm CDT Saturday: Widely scattered showers and storms will persist across the area through mid-afternoon before a complex of heavy, strong storms ignites near a pre-existing boundary from southwestern KS to northeastern IA late this afternoon and evening. This complex will span portions of KS, southeastern NE, northwestern MO and portions of IA tonight. The heavy rain risk will be quite high with this complex as it slowly moves overnight into Saturday morning. As the low-level jet weakens Saturday morning, this organized storm activity will lose organization and slowly lose coverage. Elsewhere, shower activity will progress into western NE around 4pm CDT and linger into the early portions of tonight.
Simulated radar from 1pm CDT Saturday through 1pm CDT Sunday: The remnants of tonight’s storm complex will linger across KS, northern two-thirds of MO and southern IA Saturday morning with a gradual uptick in development expected again late in the day Saturday into the night across KS, the northern two-thirds of MO and into IA as a boundary remains. The boundary will lift northward as a warm front Sunday with widespread shower and storm activity progressing north across KS, northern MO, southern IA and southeastern NE. A few strong storms are possible during this timeframe.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Sunday: A heavy swath of 1-3″ of rain is likely spanning across the eastern 3/4ths of KS, northern MO, the southeast half of IA, and far southeastern NE as multiple disturbances ride along the temperature gradient draped in the region. Localized pockets of 3″+ of rain is likely within these areas, leading to areas of flash flooding.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: A large expanse of heavy rain is expected over a good chunk of the region. Widespread 3-6″ of rain is likely in IA, eastern NE, KS and northern MO. Some pockets of 6″+ are likely where the heaviest rains setup through the period.
High temperatures over the next four days: With the frontal boundary lifting back north today, temperatures will increase back into the 60s and 70s for most. 80s are likely in the southern third of the region.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Frost and freeze risks are on the table across northern/western NE tonight.
Dew point guidance over the next four days: A frontal boundary will lead to a sharp divide in humidity levels across the region.
Wind guidance over the next four days: Gusts up to 35mph are possible today, mainly in KS/NE.
Here are the temperature charts over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
Here’s a look at weeks 3/4 regarding temperature and precipitation:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!