NE/IA Video:
KS/MO Video:
Good morning everyone! We are currently tracking a few distinct areas of showers and embedded storms across central NE and southeastern KS/southwestern MO as of 9:15am CDT. Some light freezing rain is also mixing in along the NE/SD border but this frozen precipitation should work northward out of the area over the next couple of hours.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Friday: The remnants of last night’s activity will continue across the southeastern portions of KS and the southern two-thirds of MO through the mid-afternoon hours, gradually weakening as this timeframe nears. A few isolated storms may remain across portions of MO through the latter portions of the day. The disturbance across western NE will work eastward through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours across the rest of NE. This activity will work eastward and bring areas of showers and storms to IA, far northeastern KS and the northern third of MO starting this evening and lasting through the night. Storm coverage is expected to increase across southeastern IA and far northern MO late tonight into Friday morning where a marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been draped. Most of this activity should push off to the east Friday morning but some lingering isolated showers and perhaps a storm is possible in northern MO and northeastern KS.
A stationary boundary draped southwest to northeast across the region will provide ample opportunities for heavy showers and storms, some strong, later Friday. A strong line of storms will develop within the marginal risk area (shaded in darker green) late Friday afternoon and evening and barely move through the course of the night. Ample moisture along with decent instability and a strong low-level jet is enough ingredients for some of the storms along the line to contain damaging winds and hail. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall will be the result of this boundary barely moving late Friday into Saturday.
Simulated radar from 10am CDT Friday through 1pm CDT Saturday: With the stationary boundary draped from southwestern KS to northeastern IA and sufficient moisture return, a complex of heavy showers and storms will ignite mainly after 4pm (isolated patches of showers and storms will exist prior to this time across southern IA and northern MO). This complex will span from eastern IA southwestward into the northern third of MO, far southeastern NE and a majority of KS. As stated previously, some segments of this line may be strong but the heavy rain risk will definitely be the most notable. This complex will linger through the night Friday with its remnants still affecting portions of eastern KS, northern/western MO and southern IA by early Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lighter showers will work into western NE Friday afternoon and lingering into a good portion of Friday night.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Saturday: A heavy swath of 1-3″ of rain is likely to set up from eastern IA through southern KS as a result of the stationary boundary sparking numerous showers and storms. Isolated pockets of 3″+ of rain can’t be ruled out in the heaviest segments of the complex, especially in portions of southeastern KS. Locations just northwest of the heavy rainband depicted below in IA may receive more rain than depicted based off upper-level energy. A general 0.1-0.5″ of rain is likely in western/northern NE.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: A large expanse of heavy rain is expected to setup near the sharp temperature gradient across the region with multiple disturbances riding through, creating the threat for flooding rains. Widespread 3-6″+ of rain is likely in IA, southeastern NE, northern MO and the eastern two-thirds of KS. A few pockets of ~10″ of rain can’t be ruled out, mainly in central KS into southwestern IA.
High temperatures over the next four days: Today will likely be one of the coolest days of the season thus far, but a warm front will lift northward Friday, increasing temperatures into the 70s and 80s for many across KS and MO.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Patchy frost is once again on the table across the western two-thirds of NE where temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days: The cold front yesterday has dropped humidity levels substantially across the area. However, this will likely be short-lived, especially in the central/southern areas as a warm front lifts northward tomorrow.
Wind guidance over the next four days: While not as windy as yesterday, gusts as high as 35mph are likely across western NE.
Here are the temperature charts over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Large temperature fluctuations will continue across the area over the next 7 days.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!