Let us know if you have any questions, have a blessed day! -Bret
Temperatures:
As we discussed in the week’s ¾ slide, the November pattern is a bit up and down, but we think that given the lack of a PV influence and a +AO/NAO tendency, warmth can win out.
The month starts with cooler air in the Eastern US and warmth west. Nv. 5th to 10th features notable and widespread warmth for most of the country. The warmth persists into the third week of the month in the East. Behind a front into mid-November we expect a cooler period (coldest air in the Pacific NW to N. Plains). The cool air may come east briefly, before warmth begins to rebuild ~Nov. 20th and beyond.
A strong +SOI should help lead to the last third of the month being quite warm with warmer help from MJO phases 2/3 as well. Through all these fluctuations we think warmth can win out, but when you get in these types of patterns, there are just inherent risks depending on the intensity of the patterns.
Precipitation:
Changes to the precipitation forecast were relatively minor with wetter risks related to the stronger Pacific Jet and week 2/3 temperature gradient in the Northern tier of the US and Plains.
The Central Plains were the main area we trended wetter. Given the low normal rainfall this time of year, one or two weeks of a better gradient can easily send these areas wetter than normal and late the second and third week of the month should given plenty of rain chances in that area.
Tropical activity remains a risk as the first half of the month the MJO looks favorable for additional activity. We kept the SE US at normal due to this threat.
Most of the country will be very dry to start the month with the Eastern US remaining drier into mid-month under the E. US ridge. We wouldn’t be surprised if the last ~10 days of the month tended to be a little drier given the strong +SOI signal and potential similarities to ~Nov. 5 – 10.