Good afternoon everyone! This will be a quick update regarding rain chances through Wednesday. It has remained quite inactive in the weather department across the area that last couple of days with the exception being wind accompanying the upper-level low that progressed through the northeastern portions of the region yesterday. Some higher-level clouds can be noted streaming into the area from the Rockies while a very weak wave of showers is exiting eastern IA. Additional cloud cover is expected as we progress into tonight with rain chances developing as well, especially into the day Tuesday.
Here’s the general idea going through the night. Energy associated with a southeastward progressing cold front will help to develop areas of light showers in northern NE and far northwestern IA tonight. Odds are most in the circled region will stay dry due to dry air hindering precipitation falling from the clouds above, but we wanted to highlight the possibility. At most, a few weak showers will progress through these areas. Off to the south, a lack of energy will continue to promote drier weather, but low-level saturation is likely in northeastern KS, northern MO and southern IA that will lead to light showers and drizzle developing early Tuesday morning.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Tuesday: One can note that light shower activity developing this evening into the nighttime hours, impacting locations in northern NE and even far northwestern IA but as previously discussed, most of this will likely evaporate before reaching the surface. To the southeast, areas of light drizzle will begin to develop ahead of the cold front in eastern KS, northern MO and southern IA after 4am CDT Tuesday.
The focus of the light rains/drizzle Tuesday will be primarily south of the dashed line depicted below due to the aid of low-level moisture funneling into these parts. Upper-level energy and composite radar depict light shower activity to the north of this dashed line, however additional dry air tracking behind the cold front will promote locations at the surface remaining mostly dry. A few weak showers are still possible. The shower activity southeast of the dashed line will slowly work southeastward with time into Tuesday night with rain coverage likely increasing.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Tuesday through 1am CDT Thursday: Showers start to break out after 4am CDT Tuesday across areas like Wichita, Topeka up through Maryville to Davenport, then the showers remain focused across southeastern IA, central/western MO and eastern KS into Tuesday night. Shower coverage is expected to increase Tuesday night and with enough instability, a few storms may develop within the shower activity. Some of the rains may become locally heavy in central MO Tuesday night, continuing to shift southeast along and south of the I-44 corridor through the course of Wednesday. To the west, additional energy lifting into western KS Tuesday night will likely lead to rain showers, but dry air will be doing work once again against this precipitation. Very light shower activity (maybe some snowflakes mixing in across far southwestern KS) will slowly fade through the day Wednesday while more likely showers continue in southeastern MO into Wednesday night. We can’t fully rule out some very light showers north of the I-44 corridor during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night, but as previously discussed it remains unlikely due to dry air.
Total rainfall through 1am CDT Thursday: Rainfall amounts will general remain between 0.25-0.75″ across the eastern third of KS, southeastern IA and the northern two-thirds of MO. Heavy rains are more likely south of the I-44 corridor, especially in the Bootheel, where 1-2.5″ of rain is expected. The rest of IA/KS into NE will wind up with little rain, and some places here stay dry through the work week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!