Good morning everyone! We are finally working out the shower activity attached to the upper-level that worked through the area yesterday into last night. These showers are currently wrapping around the low pressure system in far eastern MN as of 8:05am CDT. There are also some strong winds still occurring across southern MN where gusts are topping 40mph at times. We’ll gradually clear the convection in eastern MN into the early afternoon hours, but areas of lingering drizzle are possible.
Skies have cleared across a large chunk of the Northern Plains this morning with the exception being MN due to the lingering impacts of the upper-level low. Through most of today, the southwestern portions of MN into the Dakotas will see a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will continue to hang on across eastern and northern MN with a reinforcing area of cloud cover likely to dive into northern MN this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough (disturbance) works through. The mix of sun and clouds in the central and western portions of the region will be short-lived as upper-level clouds from our next disturbance works into the western Dakotas late this afternoon/evening.
Here’s a look at this next storm system: This wave will enter ND after the weak shortwave trough exits the region tonight. Progressing through the morning hours Monday, areas of showers will work eastward across ND (especially the northern half) and into northwestern MN. Northern SD may get clipped by light shower activity as it progresses through, but with ample dry air in the low levels, it will likely be difficult to get this precipitation to reach the surface.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday: Light rains exit eastern MN by early afternoon with just some patchy areas of mist and drizzle lingering through the afternoon hours. The shortwave trough working through northeastern MN will continue drizzle risks even into tonight. The rest of the region will remain virtually dry through about 11pm CDT tonight when the rains from our next storm system begin to work into northwestern ND. Areas of showers will lift through the state through the night. This wave is not expected to be as potent as the one that impacted the region yesterday into this morning.
The main feature of this upcoming disturbance will lift into the Dakotas late Monday afternoon and evening while the showers in ND tonight will be scattered in nature over northern MN. The energy in the Dakotas will spread eastward with time into Monday night, spreading areas of showers eastward in the process.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Areas of showers continue to lift through ND while gradually impacting northern MN into the afternoon and evening hours Monday. Further west, a wave of rain will push into the western Dakotas. Current indications point towards this wave weakening as it treks eastward across the Dakotas Monday night with most shower coverage remaining in northeastern ND and northern MN late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A light stream of showers may develop along the cold front in southeastern SD and southern MN Tuesday morning. By the afternoon hours Tuesday, most activity will have exited the region with the exception being some light shower activity hugging the far southern portions of the region.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Tuesday: The best chance for measurable precipitation will remain in the northern areas of the region, including ND and northern MN. A general 0.1-0.5″ of rain is expected in these areas, with the higher-end amounts more likely in northeastern MN. SD and southern MN will have less chances for rains as we expect at this time for the rains to remain rather light.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through the next 7 days via the European Model: The greatest coverage for rains during this timespan will be in ND and northern MN where 0.25-1″ of liquid is expected. Precipitation will remain lighter further south into SD and southern MN (rainfall is a tad overdone in southern MN as it takes into account rains that fell last night).
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures today will range from the lower 40s northeast to near 60 southwest. There will be quite the stark difference between the northern and southern portions of the region Monday where compressional heating and a warm front will lead to temperatures approaching 70 in far southern SD while areas to the north remain in the 40s and 50s. Overnight lows tonight will drop to near freezing in the eastern Dakotas into MN while most areas stay above freezing into Monday night.
Wind guidance over the next four days: Strong wind gusts topping 40mph+ in southern MN will gradually die down during the duration of the day as the upper-level low causing these winds works out of the area. To the west, higher pressure will usher in much calmer weather and wind. The second image below shows the progression of the winds through the remainder of the day. We’ll watch another cold front swing through the region Monday that will increase winds once again, but not to the same magnitude of last night/this morning.
Wind Advisories remain in effect until 12pm CDT across southeastern MN where the core of the strong winds remain this morning.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis: A cooler pattern is anticipated behind the pre-Halloween storm system.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!