Good morning everyone! It will be another beautiful day outside across the vast majority of the region with mostly sunny skies dominating. Shown below is a loop of the satellite picture. There are a few exceptions to this, including far eastern IA where clouds and showers are currently working through and southeastern MO where a few light sprinkles can be noted this morning.
Today will be a great day for any outdoor activities (excluding areas impacted by gusty winds) as a lack of clouds for most will yield mostly sunny skies. We’ll still be observing some lingering cloud cover (and morning light rains) in far eastern IA as this portion of the region will be the last to work out the clouds from the upper-level low working through the Great Lakes. The areas of clouds along the southwestern periphery of the complex of showers working through the OHV is impacting southeastern MO this morning, but this will gradually clear out and lead to mostly sunny skies.
Even Monday will be a mostly dry day for the region with a slight increase in clouds (though still a mix of sun and clouds). There’s a chance for a few sprinkles to reach the ground in northern IA and northwestern NE Monday evening, but this shouldn’t impact any plans for the day.
We’ll start to work in better light shower chances across northern NE into northwestern IA Monday night due to energy developing along a cold front progressing through the area. These rains will remain relatively light, with a large portion of it likely not reaching the surface because of dry air above the surface. If enough saturation of these dry layers can occur, a few light showers may make it to the ground in these areas.
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT Monday through 1pm CDT Tuesday: A few light showers are possible in northern NE and northwestern IA Monday night while a greater focus for light rains and perhaps a couple storms will develop further south in eastern KS, far southern IA and northern MO early Tuesday morning. The shower coverage will expand as Tuesday progresses in these areas.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Tuesday: Most of these rains won’t come until Tuesday, but around 0.1-0.2″ of liquid is possible in eastern KS and northern MO while light rains working through far eastern IA currently can drop upwards of 0.1″ of rain. Very light shower activity in northern NE and northwestern IA will lead to little measurable precipitation.
Here’s a look at total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: The greatest focus for rains through the next week will be in IA and MO where a general 0.25-1″ of rain is likely. Rainfall amounts pick up quite drastically in southeastern MO (1-3″) due to a stout jet stream funneling in additional moisture. Areas off to the west will stay generally dry with the exception being the pre-Halloween storm system.
High temperatures over the next four days: Widespread 60s for highs are expected in the areas that observe a mix of sun and clouds today (NE, KS and MO) while 50s are more likely due to lingering cloud cover in IA. Compressional heating and a warm front will increase temperatures heading into Monday across the region with locations in the High Plains surpassing 70ºF.
Low temperatures over the next four days: The upper-level low over the Great Lakes will usher in some cooler nighttime lows Monday morning across IA where temperatures will likely drop towards freezing (especially northeast). Warmth spreading out ahead of the Halloween storm system will lead to overnight lows in the 50s and possibly lower 60s in MO and eastern KS Tuesday morning.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Strong wind gusts upwards of 40-50 mph at times are expected across IA and northeastern MO today before gradually waning late this afternoon and evening. Other portions of the region including eastern NE/KS and the rest of MO will also observe strong winds upwards of 35-40mph. Winds will calm down drastically this evening in eastern NE/KS as high pressure takes hold. Gusty winds are also on tap tomorrow across portions of the region, but not to the same magnitude as today. The second graphic below is a simulation of the wind gusts across the region through this evening while the third graphic shows the areas under a Wind Advisory.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Eyeing a cooler weather pattern behind the Halloween storm system.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!