Good afternoon!
Here is our latest thoughts for snow late Monday / Tuesday morning.
Forecast Blurb:
Based on the latest computer model forecast data we anticipate the onset of snow to start in the Quad City area ~12-1 AM Tues. Precipitation will initially fall as rain, before converting over to snow. The snow will continue through roughly 4 – 5 AM Tuesday. The snow will be light to moderate but steady leading to a general 2-4″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. Snow falling in the overnight hours will eliminate concerns of pavement being “too warm for accumulation”. However, temperatures on the Illinois side will be too warm, limiting accumulation risk.
Wind:
Sustained winds out of the NNW of 10 MPH with gust of 25 MPH at 12 AM TUE, winds decrease into the afternoon of TUE.
Temperatures:
Low 40’s by 10 PM, dropping to around 34 by 4 AM, drop to 32 by 8 AM. Temperatures warm up to low 40’s TUE afternoon before dropping to near freezing TUE night/ WED morning. Latest model guidance suggest temperatures will be too warm for refreeze.
Timing:
Rain converts to snow around 12-1 AM. Exits by 4 – 5 AM.
Below is a 4 – Panel of simulated radar from 10 PM Monday through 7 AM Tuesday. This data is from the high resolution NSSL model. Models have come to good agreement in regards to snowfall amounts and timing.
Below is a 4 – Panel of modeled temperatures from 10 PM through 7 AM TUE. This data is from the European Model.
We also need to keep an eye on a system for Halloween. The European model has backed off on totals for this system. However, the American GFS model remains aggressive with higher totals. Still some uncertainty regarding this system towards the end of next week.
