Good morning everyone! An upper-level low is currently progressing through the western Great Lakes region, bringing scattered snow showers to portions of northeastern MN as of 7:45pm CDT. This activity will continue to push south and eastward through the morning hours, gradually weakening/lifting out of eastern MN by the noon hour.
Here’s the setup heading through the remainder of the day. The upper-level low initiating snow shower activity over northeastern MN will swing southeastward and bring an end to any precipitation chances. Many in the Dakotas are waking up to clear skies as surface high pressure has pushed in. This feature will work southeastward and replace the upper-level low into the afternoon/evening, with cloud cover in MN fading and lifting eastward.
Generally, the snows this morning in northeastern MN will be fairly light with little accumulation expected before they exit. However, an isolated dusting to half an inch of additional snow is possible.
High pressure will remain settled into the region tonight, allowing for clear skies to continue for most. There will be a weak piece of energy clipping areas in the circled region below, but with ample dry air at most layers of the atmosphere (especially the lower levels), any precipitation that falls from the clouds will likely evaporate before reaching the ground (known as a virga). We can’t rule out a brief sprinkle or two.
The weak piece of energy tonight will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region with little to no energy affecting the Northern Plains Sunday. Because of this, ample sunshine with little cloud cover is expected region-wide. It won’t be until the afternoon and especially the evening hours when some high-level cirrus clouds work in from the west and become draped across southern ND, northern SD and central MN. As is the case with tonight, rains are not expected.
It is likely going to be another inactive week once again across the Northern Plains with perhaps some light rain chances picking up later next week especially Wednesday night into Thursday and then again Friday night into next Saturday. Most areas stay very dry over the next 5-7 days. The first image below is total precipitation from the European Model through the next 7 days while the second image is 7-day precipitation from normal. The vast majority of the area will observe less than 50% of the normal rainfall for the week.
High temperature guidance over the next four days: Today will be the chilliest day in this timespan with highs failing to reach 40 in many areas across MN. High temperatures increase as you head westward across the Dakotas. A warm front Sunday brings a return to 50s and 60s for the Dakotas and even southwestern MN.
Low temperature guidance over the next four mornings: Overnight lows will hover between the mid 20s in the east and the mid 30s in the west tonight. A reinforcing cold front will drop temperatures back into the 20s for many areas Monday night.
Wind guidance over the next four days: This will be the bigger story today with wind gusts approaching 40 mph at times across MN. Winds will be strong enough that a couple National Weather Service offices have issued a Wind Advisory in southeastern MN for today (second image). To the west of this area in the Dakotas, winds will be weaker as higher pressure settles into the area. Winds will be on the lighter side heading into Sunday before an additional upper-level low increases wind speeds again in MN and the eastern Dakotas Monday.
Here’s a look at the city charts for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis over the next 10 days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!