Today’s Video:
Good morning everyone! The region remains dry with plenty of cloud cover this morning and will likely stay that way for most of the day due to a lack of substantial energy. There will be some weak energy clipping the far northern portions of the region, so we can’t rule out some light shower/drizzle risks in far northern ND. Another small piece of energy will enter along the ND/SD border late this afternoon and evening, increasing light shower risks. More substantial energy and hence showers and storms will become more common tonight into Wednesday in the circled regions. A couple storms late tonight into Wednesday in southern MN may be strong with gusty winds and small hail given the lapse rates in the area.
Simulated radar through 10pm CDT Wednesday: A few lighter showers will work into northern ND/MN and along the ND/SD border as the day progresses. We can’t rule out a very light shower in far southeastern SD and far southern MN as well. Shower and storm coverage will begin to increase after 10pm CDT tonight in the western Dakotas, working east into the eastern Dakotas and eventually MN Wednesday morning. As previously discussed, energy further south in southeastern SD and southern MN will also bring scattered showers and storms overnight into Wednesday. Wrap-around rains will likely develop Wednesday across ND with shower and storm chances increasing across southeastern and eastern MN Wednesday afternoon. Some of the storms in southeastern MN Wednesday afternoon have the potential to become strong with isolated damaging winds and hail given the wind energy. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. The wrap-around rains in far northern ND will likely transition to snow as the cold front associated with these rains drop temperatures in the area.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 7am CDT Thursday: The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across ND and northern/eastern MN. Rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.5″ is likely in these areas with isolated heavier amounts possible, especially where any storms develop (eastern MN the greatest potential). Snow is in the equation in far northern ND Wednesday where ~0.5″ of very wet snow is possible. Heavier snow accumulations are more likely across the border into southern Canada.
The rains/snow will exit the region by 10pm CDT Wednesday with a brief period of higher pressure leading to calmer weather expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture from the remnants of Rosa and disturbances riding along the eastern periphery of an upper-level low west of the region will bring additional showers and perhaps some moderate rains to the southern portions of the area Thursday morning. This will gradually spread northeastward through Thursday night into Friday.
Shower/any snow activity will exit Wednesday evening with a brief lull in activity expected Wednesday night. This lull will be short-lived as rains from the remnants of Rosa work northward Thursday morning across SD and eventually the other portions of the area through the day into Thursday night. Enough cold air will remain in place across portions of northern ND and far northern MN that areas of snow are possible. Most of this activity will exit during the day Friday. Another disturbance will bring shower and storm chances to the southern areas Saturday and especially Sunday, lifting further north to end the weekend into early next week. Some snow may also mix in with the early week rains across the western Dakotas.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through the next 7 days: A sharp temperature gradient will remain in place across the far southern areas into the Central Plains. This area will be the battle zone as numerous disturbances ride along this gradient, especially in southeastern MN where rainfall amounts of 1-3″+ are likely. Most areas will pick up decent rains through this period with a general inch of rain likely. Locally higher amounts are likely where the heaviest rains develop.
Here’s a look at the setup from late week through early the upcoming work week: The rainfall amounts shown above through the next 7 days can be traced back to this setup with a stout southwest flow and multiple disturbances riding along the eastern periphery of an upper-level low positioned over the southwestern US.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Southerly winds are lifting warmer air northward into the Dakotas today, bringing temperatures into the 60s and 70s. Another blast of cooler air is on tap behind a strong cold front in the northwestern areas Wednesday and for most Thursday. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s in northwestern ND to near 60 in far southern SD tonight. Many areas have experienced a freeze at this point, but another opportunity for those who haven’t is likely Thursday morning.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: A surge in moisture is expected over the eastern areas Wednesday before another shot of cooler, drier Canadian air infiltrates the region Thursday.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: A strong cold front will blast through the region Wednesday and with it strong winds likely. High Wind Warnings may be issued by the National Weather Service across SD during the day Wednesday.
Here are the temperature charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!