Today’s Video:
Good morning everyone! Most of the region is quiet this morning as of 9:30am CDT with the exception being an isolated patch of showers and storms working through eastern ND. This will be the story for most of the day with only isolated shower and storm chances in the region through this evening. Jumping ahead to Wednesday evening, there is the risk for strong to severe storms stretching from northeastern IA (greatest threat) southwestward into northeastern KS. The threat initially will be large hail and a few isolated tornadoes as storms will be more discrete with possible supercell development. However, these storms will likely congeal into a complex that drops southward into the night, becoming more of a damaging wind threat. These storms will lose their intensity overnight with the severe threat waning.
Simulated radar through 1pm CDT Thursday: Isolated shower chances (perhaps a storm or two) risks exist today across eastern NE and into IA with rain (storm) coverage increasing tonight across far northeastern NE and far northern IA with a piece of upper-level energy working through the area. A couple pop-up storms are also possible in southern/eastern MO with the area in the warm sector of a boundary draped in the area. These pop-ups will fade as daytime heating is lost this evening. Most of the day Wednesday will be dry across the region with the best chances for showers and storms across the far northern areas. It won’t be until after 6pm CDT that discrete storm cells fire along an approaching cold front in IA and into far eastern NE. These storms will quickly congeal into a line that dives southward during the overnight hours across KS and northern MO. This line of storms will weaken overnight but numerous shower and storm activity will likely persist across portions of KS late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with additional energy increasing showers and storms across western NE during this same timespan. By Thursday afternoon, areas of showers and storms will be continuing over the central and northern portions of the region.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Thursday: A general 0.5-1″ of rain is likely across southern IA, northern MO and into central/eastern KS during this timeframe with localized 1-3″ possible, especially in central KS, with the heaviest storms. Another 0.5-1″ of rain is likely in western NE with the rains lifting into the area Thursday.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: A large expanse of heavy rains is likely to setup near a sharp temperature gradient across the region with multiple disturbances working through. Widespread rains of 3-6″+ is likely in IA, northern MO, southeastern NE and into KS. As we head into Friday and Saturday, a front will lift into the area and persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, providing the heavy rains (and areas of flooding) shown below.
Here’s a look at the setup from late week through early the upcoming work week: The rainfall amounts shown above through the next 7 days can be traced back to this setup with a stout southwest flow and multiple disturbances riding along the eastern periphery of an upper-level low positioned over the southwestern US.
High temperatures over the next four days: A boundary draped across IA will lead to a sharp temperature gradient with 50s and 60s in the northern areas and 70s and 80s along its southern border and points south. This boundary will lift northward Wednesday into the Northern Plains with temperatures climbing into the 70s and 80s for most.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows will climb Wednesday morning across the area before a cold front drops temperatures over the northern half of the region Thursday morning. Frost and freeze risks are likely Thursday morning with lows in the 30s across NE and IA.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days: Humidity will be substantially (lower/higher) (north/south) of the boundary positioned across the region today before it lifts northward as a warm front tomorrow.
Wind guidance over the next four days: A windy day is on tap across the Central Plains Wednesday with gusts approaching 35mph in numerous locations, especially in NE and IA.
Here are the temperature charts over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Notice there will be large temperature fluctuations over the next 7 days, especially in IA and NE where a lingering boundary will remain.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!