Good morning everyone! Areas of snow are currently impacting far eastern SD into southern MN as of 9:30am CDT while some light rains that haven’t transitioned to snow can be noted across far southeastern MN. Snow coverage is definitely higher than originally anticipated as colder air was able to infiltrate the area quicker, allowing for the rains to transition to snow at a faster clip.
Areas of light snow will continue in the far southeastern portions of the region today, gradually lifting out into the evening hours. An upper-level low from Southern Canada will drift southeastward into northeastern ND and northern MN today as well, providing light snow risks to the northern circled area given the influx of energy.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Monday: Light snows with some rain mixed in further south and east continue to glide through southern MN through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours, gradually tapering off west to east as the afternoon and evening progresses. Light, wrap-around snow showers will meander southeastward across northeastern ND and northern MN starting early this afternoon. The light snow coverage will gradually fade into the nighttime hours across northern MN with only a few snowflakes remaining in northeastern MN by the time 7am CDT Monday rolls around. A couple very light rain/snow showers may clip far southern MN tonight.
Here’s a look at total snowfall through 1pm CDT Monday: The snows currently impacting far southeastern SD into the southern third of MN will drop 0.5-1.5″ before exiting late today while incoming light snows for northeastern ND/northern MN will drop pockets of around an inch.
Total precipitation through Monday morning reveals many across the Dakotas picking up little to no moisture. Areas that see precipitation (northeastern ND, northern/southern third of MN) should expect ~0.05-0.2″ of liquid roughly.
Additional weak energy will dive southeastward out of Southern Canada Monday into Tuesday, resulting in very light rain risks to the northeastern half of the region. This weak wave will be quite moisture starved, so chances remain low at this time that any of the precipitation that falls from the clouds will make it to the ground, though it can’t be ruled out.
Simulated radar from 10am CDT Monday through 1pm CDT Tuesday: The southern portions of the region during the day Monday will remain virtually cloud free with areas of clouds continuing in ND and northern MN. As discussed above, a weak wave will migrate southeastward into ND Monday into Monday night, providing very light shower chances to the state as well as MN. While this radar depicts showers working through, there is a high chance that the remains evaporate before reaching the surface (known as a virga). There is a good chance the vast majority of the region remains dry through this timeframe. By Tuesday morning, very light shower activity will be working through MN, exiting early Tuesday afternoon.
After these waves work through the area through tomorrow morning, we see a significant drying trend region-wide into next week and beyond. Total precipitation through the next 7 days is on the left while percent of normal precipitation is on the right. Please note that the precipitation depicted in southern/southwestern SD has already fallen, with no additional liquid expected.
High temperature guidance over the next four days: A cold front has ushered in much colder air once again with record low maximums on tap across many areas in the Northern Plains today (depicted by the white squares). High temperatures increase region-wide Monday into Tuesday.
Overnight low temperature guidance for the next four mornings: All areas will be below freezing tonight with lows in the teens likely in portions of SD. Record low minimums are possible tonight in SD (depicted by the white circles).
Dew point guidance over the next four days:
Wind guidance over the next four days: Winds will be gusty region wide into early work week before a decline occurs Wednesday.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis: Targeting a warm-up late work week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!