Good morning everyone! There are two areas to watch this morning: The first one is the remnants of Sergio which are beginning to exit southeastern MO and the other being associated with a cold front progressing through the region. Accumulating snow is falling across portions of NE with light rain/drizzle activity to the east in southeastern NE into north-central IA. A heavier batch of showers can be noted west of Salina, KS and northeast of Garden City, KS. The snows in the northwestern parts of the region will spread south and eastward with time today.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday: A gradual transition to snow is expected west to east this morning across NE, northwestern KS and northwestern IA while rain activity will continue along an eastward trajectory through central KS, central/southern IA and northern MO. Models have trended less aggressive with the band of snow in southern NE into northwestern KS, but areas of snow are still expected in these parts through the afternoon hours. The trend from yesterday continues across IA with some wet snow likely starting in the western portions of the state late this morning and progressing into other portions of the state as the day progresses. Snow coverage will begin to decrease overnight tonight, but a thin stripe of snow is possible stretching from central KS into northern MO. This disturbance will lift out of the area late tonight into early Monday morning affecting eastern KS and most of MO with light shower activity in the process while additional moisture from the Southern Plains will keep shower and storm chances around in southern MO Monday morning.
Additional snowfall risk through the day today: A large chunk of the snows have fallen in western NE but additional snows are expected eastward across the remainder of the state into the northwestern half of IA. Snow activity will increase today in the northwestern half of KS where a stripe of 2-4″ of snow is still possible. A transition to snow is possible just east of what’s depicted below, but will likely have a difficult time accumulating.
Here’s the general setup heading into Monday with most rain activity suppressed to southern MO: Areas to the north and west will remain largely dry as the cold front will have passed and ushered in cooler, drier air.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: The vast majority of the region will remain dry throughout the day Monday with the exception being southern MO with moisture still surging northeastward from the Southern Plains. Rain risks will continue Monday with a decrease in activity, though the threat still remains, heading into Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Total precipitation through 7am CDT Tuesday: A general 0.2-0.5″ of liquid is expected across the eastern half of NE, KS and most of MO with pockets of 0.75-1″ of liquid likely where any banding develops. The heaviest rainfall amounts will be located in far southern MO from additional moisture lifting northeastward where 0.5-1.25″ of rain will be common. Precipitation amounts near 0.25″ is likely in IA.
Beyond the rain chances in southern MO Monday and even Tuesday, the pattern really quiets down. We will observe several days next week with high pressure and drier weather area-wide, give-or-take an isolated rain chance in late work week. Here is the precipitation forecast through the next 7 days:
High temperatures over the next four days: A cold front ushers in much colder air into the northwestern half of the region today. Many in these areas will observe record cold high temperatures (depicted in the white squares). Record cold high temperatures will likely extend further south as we head into Monday.
Low temperatures over the next four days: After today’s snow threat, the reinforcing cold bast brings possible record cold lows (depicted in the white circles) across the northwestern half of the area Monday morning. Additional areas further south into KS and northwestern MO will also observe a freeze. Frost risks extend into into the southern portions of the area.
A wide variety of advisories and warnings are in effect across the Central Plains, including Hard Freeze Warnings for southwestern KS (not shown below), Winter Weather Advisories for the northwestern half of KS into western NE, Winter Storm Warnings for very far western NE, Freeze Warnings stretching across the central portions of the region and a Freeze Watch in central IA.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days:
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will be gusty behind the cold from today with a relax expected Monday and Tuesday.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!