Good morning everyone! The region remains dry currently with high pressure positioned across the eastern portions of the area. However, this brief lull in activity will be short-lived as the remnants from Sergio brush the southern portions of the region later today while a cold front from the north brings additional rain/snow activity. A simulated radar running through 7am CDT Sunday is shown below. Rains from Sergio lift into southern KS (especially the southeastern portions) around 10-11am CDT and eventually southern MO during the afternoon hours and evening hours. The state of NE will also observe areas of light rain/snow showers this afternoon and evening as the cold front sags southward into the region. During the overnight hours, areas of rain will linger across southern MO while banded precipitation develops in the Western Plains. Snows are likely to start out in western NE before drifting southward as more cold air intrudes into northwestern KS. To the east, areas of light shower activity will impact north-central/southwestern KS, IA and eastern NE this evening into tonight.
Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are in effect across a good chunk of the northwestern half of KS and portions of the NE Panhandle for the incoming snows late tonight into Sunday. Accumulating snows are likely so definitely beware! The area currently under a Winter Storm Watch has the highest potential for 4-6″+ of snow.
Fog will most likely not be a problem for most across the area into Sunday. However, given the rains and snow impacting portions of the region, visibilities will likely be hindered, especially in western KS with the rains transitioning to snow. Lower visibilities are depicted in darker shades.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: A gradual transition to snow is expected during the morning hours Sunday across additional portions of southern NE and western/northern KS. A band of steady snow should set-up from western KS into southern NE for several hours during the day Sunday before snow coverage decreases late. Showers will be found in the southeastern half of KS, northwestern MO and southern IA Sunday with a few areas in northwestern MO and southwestern IA possibly seeing a brief turnover to snow. This disturbance will lift out of the area Sunday night while additional moisture from the Southern Plains will keep shower and storm chances around in far southeastern KS/southern MO into Monday morning.
Latest accumulating snowfall map: A band of snow will likely set-up leading to decent snowfall accumulations in northwestern KS due to strong frontogenesis (lift) and cold air intruding into the lower-levels of the atmosphere. Models have trended slightly higher with snowfall amounts in western NE, hence the 2-4″ range with 4-6″ in far western NE. A brief period of snow in southwestern IA could lead to a slushy 0.5-2″ of snow late Sunday. Snowfall totals will be quite hit or miss as sharp cut-offs will likely develop. A few isolated areas in far western KS may pick up 8″ of snow.
Total precipitation through 7am CDT Monday: A general 0.2-0.5″ of liquid is expected across NE and KS with a few pockets receiving upward of 0.75-1″ of liquid where banding sets up. The heaviest amounts will be located in southern MO from the remnants of Sergio where 0.5-1″ of rain will be common. As stated in yesterday’s update, the location of the band of snow in northwestern KS is not set in stone and could waver slightly.
Here’s the general setup heading into Monday with most rain activity suppressed to southern MO and southeastern KS: Areas to the north and west will remain largely dry as the cold front will have passed and ushered in cooler, drier air.
Beyond the rain chances in southern MO Monday and even Tuesday, the pattern really quiets down. We will observe several days next week with high pressure and drier weather area-wide, give-or-take an isolated rain chance into next weekend. Here is the precipitation forecast through the next 7 days:
High temperatures over the next four days: A brief “milder” return of air is anticipated today before the cold front ushers in colder air into the northwestern half of the region Sunday. Many in these areas will observe record cold high temperatures!
Low temperatures over the next four days: After the late weekend snow threat, the reinforcing cold blast brings possible record cold lows across the northwestern half of the area Monday morning. Additional areas further south into KS and northwestern MO will likely observe a freeze. Frost risks will extend into the southern portions of the area.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days:
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will be gusty behind the cold front Sunday with a relax expected Monday and Tuesday.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!