Good afternoon everyone! We are beginning to work in the remnants of Sergio across the far southern portions of the region. These rains will continue to lift towards the ENE through the duration of the afternoon and evening hours while a cold front from the north brings additional rain/snow activity to the Western Plains. Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the same areas discussed in this morning’s update.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday: Rains from Sergio will continue to lift into far southeastern KS with southern MO gaining rain coverage as the afternoon progresses. The state of NE will also observe areas of light rain/snow showers this afternoon and evening as the cold front sags southward into the region. During the overnight hours, areas of rain will linger across southern MO while banded precipitation develops in the Western Plains. Snows are likely to start in western NE before drifting south and eastward as more cold air intrudes into far northwestern KS and central NE. To the east, areas of light shower activity will impact north-central/southwestern KS, IA and eastern NE this evening into tonight. A few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out with the convection in western KS tonight.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: A gradual transition to snow is expected Sunday morning across additional portions of southern/eastern NE and western KS. A trend during the latest model runs is to also transition the rains to snow across northern/western IA for an extended period during the day Sunday. With enough cold air in place, this is a real possibility. A band of steady snow should set-up from western KS into southern NE and possibly as far east as western IA for several hours Sunday before snow coverage decreases into Sunday night. Rain showers will be found in the southeastern half of KS, northwestern MO and southeastern IA with a few areas in northwestern MO and eventually southeastern IA possibly seeing a brief turnover to snow. This disturbance will lift out of the area late Sunday night while additional moisture from the Southern Plains will keep shower and storm chances around in southern MO into Monday morning.
Update accumulating snowfall map: A band of snow will likely set-up leading to decent snowfall accumulations in northwestern KS and the NE Panhandle due to strong frontogenesis (lift) and cold air intruding into the lower-levels of the atmosphere. The latest runs of the high-resolution models depict a more substantial turnover to snow in eastern NE into IA that cannot be ignored. However, snowfall amounts will depend on how quickly the rains can transition to snow in these areas. With that uncertainty, 1-2″ snowfall amounts remain in eastern NE and western IA, but there is a good chance that snowfall accumulations can extend further east into central/southern IA. A drier slot may also develop south of North Platte, NE and north of the western KS/NE border, resulting in a corridor of lower snow totals. As discussed before, a brief period of snow in southern/central IA could lead to a slushy 0.5-2″ of snow late Sunday. Snowfall totals will be quite hit or miss as sharp cut-offs will likely develop. A few isolated areas in far western KS/very far western NE may pick up 8″ of snow.
Total precipitation through 7am CDT Monday: A general 0.2-0.5″ of liquid is expected across NE and KS with pockets of 0.75-1″ of liquid likely where banding sets up. The heaviest amounts will be located in southern MO from the remnants of Sergio where 0.5-1.25″ of rain will be common. Precipitation amounts near 0.25″ is likely in northern MO into IA.
Here’s the general setup heading into Monday with most rain activity suppressed to southern MO: Areas to the north and west will remain largely dry as the cold front will have passed and ushered in cooler, drier air. This latest run is slightly further south with the upper-air flow, resulting in the rains shifted 25-50 miles further south than from this morning’s run.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!