Good morning everyone! The calm, nice weather we experienced yesterday is in the past as we have plenty of cloud cover across the region with light precipitation working into the western Dakotas as of 9:30am CST. This convection is associated with our incoming disturbance which will bring a very light glaze of ice for some locations while northeastern portions of the region observe accumulating snow. While radar is depicting areas of light freezing rain and snow falling, current observations suggest none of this precipitation is reaching the ground due to unsaturated layers beneath the clouds.
Areas of dense fog were able to develop once again this morning with Dense Fog Advisories that were in effect for portions of southeastern ND, northeastern SD and southwestern MN recently expiring as the fog slowly erodes. The incoming storm system has also allowed for Winter Weather Advisories to be issued in northeastern ND through northern MN while Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of northeastern MN.
Simulated radar through 2pm CST Monday: Our incoming storm system will continue to work eastward, eventually allowing scattered snow showers to finally reach the ground in western ND over the next few hours before mixing with light freezing rain during the afternoon and evening hours. Further south, freezing drizzle will be possible into SD (especially central and eastern areas this evening). Slippery roads will be likely as light freezing drizzle will likely lead to a thin glaze of ice. During the evening hours, additional convection will develop with light snows spreading through eastern ND and eventually northern MN overnight while light rains will be more prevalent in the southern half of MN. The bulk of the precipitation will have exit the Dakotas by 6am CST Monday and eventually MN around the noon hour. The winds will also pick up as this system strengthens, so lower visibilities along with blowing snow will be common at times in ND and northern MN.
Low-level saturation directly behind the main wave also aids in the development of freezing drizzle tonight in the eastern two-thirds of SD and south-central ND (darker shadings below). Freezing fog will be possible in these areas as well, so definitely be mindful as slick spots are likely. As previously stated, a thin glaze of ice up to a few hundredths of an inch is expected.
Total snowfall through Monday afternoon: Recent model runs have trended back on some of the accumulations across the northeastern portions of the area with confidence still low due to model variances. Regardless, the best chances for 3-5″+ is expected to be located in far northern into northeastern MN with a corridor of 1-3″ further south in northeastern ND and the remainder of the northern half of MN. The heaviest totals will be located in the Arrowhead where 5-10″+ is expected. Right along the Lake Superior coast could receive over a foot of snow. Accumulating snow in Minneapolis looks unlikely at this point in time as more rain due to warmer temperatures is to be anticipated. SD shouldn’t receive accumulating snow, but rather more of a freezing drizzle threat. Rainfall totals range from 0.1-0.3″ across southern MN with locally higher amounts possible, especially in the southeastern tip of the state.
Behind the storm system we are tracking currently, a shortwave trough will enter from the Rockies come Monday evening and bring a weak, scattered round of mixed precipitation as it progresses across SD, southern ND into southern MN. Generally speaking, any accumulation from snow is expected to remain rather light.
Simulated radar from 2pm CST Monday through 6pm CST Tuesday: The wave from today into Monday exits while the shortwave enters the western Dakotas mid afternoon and provides mixed precipitation chances. The shortwave will remain on the weaker side with the precipitation quickly progressing eastward overnight across the remainder of SD, southern ND and into the southern half of MN. Light snow accumulations are possible in southern MN as the system deepens a bit before exiting late Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, scattered snow showers will be possible Tuesday in northern MN continuing Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Most areas will be dry Wednesday and Thursday while a weak wave from the north won’t target the northeastern areas until Thursday night into Friday morning. The bulk of the precipitation shown below comes from the storm system through Monday. Even with the weak shortwave Monday night, some areas in SD may receive little to no precipitation through this timespan.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Our mild stretch of weather lingers through Monday with highs at times, especially south, rising above freezing. Take a look at the overnight lows tonight…some will fail to dip below 32ºF which is impressive for January standards. However, a colder blast of air will follow behind the shortwave Tuesday with some in northeastern ND not warming above the single digits. Even colder air will filter into the region come Wednesday. Tuesday night will feature out coldest temperatures with many in ND and northwestern MN falling into the negatives.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: With our storm system working into the region today, winds will pick up with gusts upwards of 35mph at times. These stronger winds will likely persist into early work week before subsiding somewhat into Wednesday as higher pressure builds in.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!