Good morning everyone! Compared to yesterday morning, there is definitely more in the way of clouds streaming across the area as of 7:45am CST, which is likely helping to keep most of the fog risks at bay. As we continue through the rest of the day, additional upper-level clouds will work eastward across the region with even some peaks of sunshine likely, though precipitation chances will start to increase late (especially east).
Simulated radar through 6pm CST Monday: The clouds we are observing now are developing out ahead of our next disturbance that is progressing into the region. Many will remain dry through the daytime hours as any precipitation that develops will be combating dry air in the mid-levels. However, low-level saturation near the surface will likely lead to areas of drizzle/sprinkles in NE and KS later this afternoon and evening. The vast majority of this won’t amount to anything. Shower activity starts to pick up around the 6pm CST hour in IA, northern MO and the eastern third of KS. Once again, the showers in eastern KS and northwestern MO will be battling dry air, but if enough saturation can occur, some measurable precipitation is possible. This activity will push eastward Sunday night with the rest of MO likely receiving scattered light late tonight into Monday morning. While a minimal threat at this time, a brief period of freezing rain is possible in far northeastern IA initially late this evening before warm air advection transitions any of this frozen precipitation to rain. The bulk of the rain will exit eastern IA around 8am CST Monday with eastern MO following early afternoon. Areas of drizzle will remain likely behind this wave in IA and MO. Even with the mid-levels largely remaining dry for most of NE and KS, spotty showers will be possible through this event before chances diminish Monday morning.
Rainfall amounts from this front continue to look rather unimpressive, with many in NE and KS receiving little to no precipitation (mostly patchy drizzle/sprinkles). Eastern IA is the area with the best shot for 0.1-0.3″ of measurable liquid with higher amounts of 0.5″+ closer to its Mississippi River border. As for MO, a general 0.1-0.25″ of rain is likely in the northern/northeastern portions of the state with lighter amounts expected the further south you head.
The fog threat should remain on the minimal side this evening through tomorrow morning, excluding areas with snowpack (during the evening hours) and then northern IA (shown below for Monday morning). Winds will have increased today and likely still stay on the breezy side into tonight, which should mitigate most of the threat. However, given the warm air advection, we can’t rule out patchy fog in the aforementioned areas.
After the system that will impact the region through early Monday afternoon departs to the east, we’ll watch another disturbance progress through northeastern NE into most of IA Monday night through Tuesday morning. Most of the precipitation that comes with this system will remain on the lighter side.
Here’s a simulated radar for the second event from 6pm CST Monday through 12pm CST Tuesday: Scattered light rain showers will impact northeastern NE before exiting around midnight and lifting into IA. From here, these scattered showers will work through IA while also mixing with snow at times over the northeastern portions of the state as colder air starts to work into the area. Any snow accumulation will likely be light with a coating at best. This wave will depart IA late Tuesday morning. After these two systems, the rest of Tuesday through Thursday are looking to remain dry with mostly sunny skies dominating the area on Tuesday. Increased cloud cover with little to no precipitation is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.
We’re still eyeing another system to possibly impact the southern portions of the area late work week with snow chances alive as colder air will have funneled into the region. However, current model consensus is keeping it more suppressed with mostly the far southern portions of MO being impacted. Fluctuations in track and intensity are likely so it’s something to watch over the coming work week. Regardless, most of KS and NE will remain rather dry this upcoming week with minimal precipitation chances.
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs will be above the average through Tuesday with most in the north warming into the 40s and areas further south (KS/MO) warming into the 50s. Some areas in southern/eastern MO Monday are likely to top out in the 60s. Temperatures will run colder in the areas that still have a snowpack (portions of western KS into central NE). However, the model is likely overdone on the extent of the cold in these locations.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Morning lows will run well above average for January standards through Tuesday morning before a colder shot of air arrives in time for Wednesday morning.
Wind forecast over the next four days: The incoming disturbance will tighten the pressure gradient and enhance winds today with gusts up to 35mph. Winds will decline somewhat Monday (though western NE will likely continue with breezy conditions. A shortwave trough will glide through the northeastern areas and increase wind gusts again, likely approaching 40mph at times.
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!