Good morning everyone! We’re looking at a fantastic day weather-wise with a mix of sun and clouds as of 9:35am CST. Shown below is the current satellite picture which depicts areas of high-level clouds streaming through the area with even some hints of low-lying fog in northeastern ND and far northern MN. Regarding temperatures, we’re off to a mild morning for the region as a whole with some locations already approaching and/or exceeding the 32ºF mark.
Dense Fog Advisories are in effect for northeastern ND and northwestern MN until 10am CST this morning as the fog should slowly erode as the morning progresses. Temperatures in these areas are below freezing so slick spots will be possible. We also have an incoming storm system to discuss that is expected to bring accumulating snows to portions of ND into northern MN. Significant snows are possible in northeastern MN (particularly the Arrowhead) where Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted.
As previously discussed, today’s weather will be rather quiet with sun and clouds dominating most of the region. There is some upper-level energy skirting through the far northern locations of MN which could provide isolated snow shower/flurry chances along with some light freezing drizzle at times. However, as the fog erodes there likely will be minimal impacts.
As is the case from this morning, areas of fog (darker shading) will once again re-develop across portions of the region, especially in the eastern Dakotas into northern MN. Temperatures will dip below freezing in these areas once again, so slick spots in the areas that the fog develops cannot be ruled out. The western Dakotas are less likely to observe fog due to increasing winds.
Heading into mid-day Sunday, our next storm system will begin to work into the area from the west. Initially, we’ll likely see a few scattered snow showers mixing with light freezing drizzle at times in the western ND before the storm strengthens late Sunday afternoon and evening as it progresses towards the eastern Dakotas. Light freezing drizzle will be possible in eastern SD during this time with additional snows breaking out in the eastern two-thirds of ND. During the evening hours Sunday and especially overnight, this precipitation will work into MN with rain and freezing rain south and snows north. The bulk of the precipitation will have exited the Dakotas by 6am CST Monday and eventually MN around the noon hour. Areas that observe freezing rain/drizzle likely will have ice accretion of up to a few hundredths of an inch but will lead to slippery roads. The winds will also pick up with as this system strengthens, so lower visibilities along with blowing snow will be common at times in ND and northern MN.
Here’s a preliminary map regarding snowfall Sunday through the day Monday: We’re eyeing a swath of 3-6″ of snow from northeastern ND into the northern half of MN with higher amounts of 6-12″ likely in the northeastern portions of MN (where the Winter Storm Watches are in effect). Snow accumulations drop off the further south you head with SD largely missing out on most of the accumulating snows. Minneapolis will be on the line with the city itself possibly receiving a couple inches of snow and south of the city receiving little in the way of accumulation. Fluctuations in track and intensity will be likely heading into tomorrow, so minor changes will be possible.
After the main system passes to the east Monday another shortwave trough from southern Canada will glide through ND late Monday/Monday night and northern MN Monday night/Tuesday. Snow accumulations likely won’t be as impressive with this system, but these areas could pick up 1-2″ of additional snow before most places come to an end with the snow late Tuesday.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Wednesday and Thursday are looking to be dry across the area while the next wave won’t target the southeastern areas until Thursday night into Friday morning, but strength and track are still to be determined. The bulk of the precipitation shown below comes from the incoming system mid-day Sunday through Monday. Some areas in SD may receive little to no precipitation through this timespan.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Our mild stretch of weather lingers through Monday with highs at times, especially south, rising above freezing. Take a look at the overnight lows Sunday night…some will fail to dip below 32ºF which is impressive for January standards. However, a colder blast of air will follow behind the system Tuesday with some in northern ND not warming above the single digits. Tuesday night will feature our coldest temperatures with many in ND falling into the negatives.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Eyeing calmer winds today due to higher pressure building in from the north. However, as we work in the next storm system Monday, winds will pick up with gusts upwards of 35mph at times. These stronger winds will likely persist into early work week.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!