Good morning everyone! Most of us have awoken this morning to cloudless skies as of 7:50am CST, especially in KS and MO. However, patches of upper-level clouds are streaming across the northern tier of the area in NE and portions of IA. These upper-level clouds will likely continue to work eastward through the day, but even areas in IA and NE will see plentiful amounts of sunshine today.
Here’s a look at the sky cover forecast for the day: As previously stated, areas of upper-level clouds will be common in NE and IA but likelihood is there will be more sun than clouds even for these areas. Further south should largely remain unaffected by these clouds and remain more on the sunny side through the day. It won’t be until late afternoon into the evening when additional clouds start to work into the western areas as our next disturbance starts to lift out of the Rockies.
Thicker upper-level clouds will stream west to east across the area tonight with the vast majority of the area covered in clouds by Sunday morning. As the weak system works eastward across the area Sunday, cloud cover will remain around the area with some breaks in clouds in the High Plains possible Sunday evening.
Most areas remain unscathed by fog this morning. However, as we progress into the late nighttime hours into Sunday morning, there will be increased chances for the development of fog (most notably in western NE/northwestern KS and eastern KS into northern MO. The fog may be dense in spots in western NE/northwestern KS and with temperatures falling below freezing, we can’t rule out slick spots in these areas. Temperatures will largely remain above freezing in eastern KS/northern MO, but we can’t rule out a slick spot or two in any area that falls below freezing.
As previously stated, cloud cover will definitely be more prevalent Sunday with our next disturbance working into the region. Shown below is a simulated radar from 6am CST Sunday through 12pm CST Monday. Many will still remain dry through the daytime hours as precipitation will be combating dry air in the mid-levels. However, low-level saturation near the surface will likely lead to areas of drizzle in NE and KS before shower activity starts to pick up Sunday evening in IA, northern MO and the eastern third of KS. This activity will push eastward Sunday night with the rest of MO likely receiving light rain showers during the day Monday. While a minimal threat at this time, there’s a chance the precipitation initially in far northern IA could start off as freezing rain Sunday night before warm air advection transitions any of this frozen precipitation to all rain. The bulk of the rain will exit eastern IA late Monday morning with eastern MO following early afternoon. Areas of drizzle will remain possible behind this wave, mainly in MO.
Rainfall amounts from this front continue to look less impressive with every passing run, with many in NE and KS receiving little to no precipitation (mostly areas of light drizzle). Eastern IA is the area with the best shot for 0.1-0.3″ of measurable liquid with localized 0.5″ in isolated spots. This model may be slightly underdone in northern MO where a general 0.1-0.2″ of rainfall is possible with lighter amounts expected the further south you head.
A majority of the region will be dry Monday with the exception being the far eastern areas where light precipitation will continue to hang around (mainly early). A weak wave of very light precipitation may skirt the northern areas Monday night. Dry weather is anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday with a jab of much cooler temperatures over the northeastern portions of the region mid-week. Our next chance for precipitation will come Thursday into Friday, but current model consensus is keeping it on the weaker side for now. Shown below is total precipitation over the next 7 days:
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs will be far above the average through this timeframe with most in the north warming into the 40s and areas further south (KS/MO) warming into the 50s. Temperatures will run colder in the areas that still have a snowpack (portions of western KS into central NE). However, the model is likely overdone on the extent of the cold in these locations.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Morning lows will run well above average for January standards through Tuesday morning before a colder shot of air arrives in time for Wednesday morning.
Wind forecast over the next four days: High pressure brings very light winds across the area today before the next disturbance tightens the pressure gradient and enhances winds into Sunday. Wind gusts up to 35mph will be common for most locations Sunday before winds decline somewhat Monday (though western NE will likely continue with breezy conditions).
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!