Good afternoon everyone! As we have worked into the afternoon hours, precipitation from the cut-off low further south in the Southern Plains is slowly inching further ENE, continuing to scrape locations right along the OK/KS border and the southern-most row of counties in KS with a mixed bag of precipitation. In general, this will be the furthest north extent of the precipitation in KS through tonight, but we’ll find periods of rain slowly progress further into southern MO. We’re not expecting any accumulation from snow/freezing rain mixing in, but if traveling south into OK definitely be weary of slick roads.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Friday: Light rains possibly mixing with freezing rain and/or even sleet at times will continue across the far southeastern portions of KS (along the eastern KS/OK border) while the ENE progression of the storm system will bring showers across southern MO overnight. While a very minimal threat at this time, there is a chance the rain may briefly transition to freezing rain on its far northern periphery where there is slightly colder air along the I-44 corridor late tonight, but ice accumulations are not anticipated.
Given the slow-moving nature of cut-off upper-level lows, it will take some time to clear the precipitation out of the area. Shown below is where to expect periods of rain given the energy aloft and saturation by the time 6am CST Friday rolls around. There is some energy further north of the highlighted area, but low-mid level dryness will prevent precipitation chances. As the system works east the precipitation will too, gradually coming to an end west to east through the duration of Friday. Elsewhere is looking to be dry Friday, including northern MO and all of KS.
Simulated radar from 6am CST through 9pm CST Friday: Far southeastern KS will be clear of the precipitation by mid-Friday morning with the bulk of the activity slowly working eastward across southern MO (along and south of the I-44 corridor) during the day. As previously stated, freezing rain may mix in at times along the far northern periphery, but would only be a minimal threat during the morning hours. Cities such as Joplin and Springfield, MO will have since cleared the precipitation by the start of the afternoon with southeastern MO gradually drying out Friday evening as the cut-off low finally works out of the region.
Total precipitation through 9pm CST Friday: Precipitation amounts will be light along the eastern KS/OK border with up to 0.1″ of liquid possible. Further east for locations south of the I-44 corridor in MO, rainfall will generally range from 0.5-1″. Locally heavier pockets of rain will be possible in far southern MO where isolated amounts of 1.5″+ can’t be ruled out.
Beside the rain chances in the aforementioned areas, elsewhere will enjoy clear skies through the remainder of the daylight hours today with moonlit skies for tonight. During the day Friday, cloud cover (depicted by the bluer shades below) in southeastern KS will gradually erode and lift east, resulting in plentiful sunshine for the vast majority of the state. Northern MO will continue to bathe in sunshine while increased cloud cover associated with the rains from the storm system will linger in southern MO but work west to east with time. One aspect the model shows nicely is the development of patchy fog Friday evening and night where snow cover is located (western KS).
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!