Good morning everyone! While the winter storm that affected the region yesterday into early this morning has since moved out, we will be tracking additional light snow risks across the region over the next couple of days. Winter Weather Advisories have been hoisted for eastern ND and portions of western MN, mainly for the threat of blowing snow heading into the day tomorrow as winds will likely gust to 35mph. This will also lead to reductions in visibility as well.
We are eyeing two areas to continue to observe the best chances for light snow showers into tonight and Tuesday morning, those being in western SD/southwestern ND and eastern MN (especially the northeast portions of the state). A lobe of the Polar Vortex which will help to provide some energy to the region and areas of frontogenesis or lift that will persist/develop snow showers in these areas. That’s not to say elsewhere can’t see flurries or light snow showers as we believe the far eastern Dakotas and western MN could also observe scattered light snow showers, it’s just the forcing won’t be as strong in these areas.
Simulated radar through 9pm CST Tuesday: Scattered snow showers will develop and progress across the western portions of SD this evening into the overnight hours, slowly sagging southward with time in the process. These snow showers could also clip the far southwestern portions of ND as well given some of the lift present in the atmosphere. Further east, scattered light snow showers will be possible in the far eastern Dakotas into western MN this evening into tonight as well, but should be more limited in coverage. Our other area to watch this evening into tonight is eastern MN, particularly northeastern portions as a wave of light snow likely pushes through the area. By 6am CST Tuesday most of the scattered coverage in the eastern Dakotas and western MN will have faded while patches of lingering “bursts” of snow will still remain possible in southwestern SD. Chances for snow will be lower through the day Tuesday compared to tonight, and will be more confined to isolated patches in the southern half of the region. This is thanks to high pressure bearing down from the north which will shunt most of the isolated snow/flurry chances southward especially heading into Tuesday evening.
We’ll also observe very strong wind gusts (upwards of 40-50mph) through the overnight hours in the western Dakotas which will lead to visibility issues at times with some of these snow showers/squalls. However, the risk does extend east tonight as well with winds gusting to 35mph at times. We’ll continue to note stronger gusts (35mph) over the vast majority of the region Tuesday which will help to promote blowing snow and reduced visibilities but also drastically dropping wind chill values (more on this later). Winds will slowly die down over the Dakotas Tuesday night.
Total snowfall through 9pm CST Tuesday: Not everyone will see snow through this timespan as it will remain scattered in nature. Regardless, scattered “bursts” of snow in the western portions of SD will lead to pockets of 0.5-1″ of snow. Isolated amounts of up to 2″ can’t be ruled out, but will be quite limited. Due to the scattered nature of the snows in these areas, one location may receive no snow while another 10 miles down the road picks up 1″. Pockets of ~0.5″ of snow are expected in the far eastern Dakotas into western MN while better snow coverage in northeastern MN will lead to 0.5-2″ snowfall amounts, especially in the Arrowhead.
The winds previously discussed will combine with true arctic air as a lobe of the Polar Vortex dives southward into the area this week. Shown below are the areas that are under Wind Chill Warnings (which includes a good majority of the Northern Plains) into mid-week. All of MN, the vast majority of ND and eastern SD are under these Wind Chill Warnings. Further west, Wind Chill Advisories have been hoisted.
The effects of the Polar Vortex will lead to multiple days of dangerous wind chills from -40ºF to -60ºF across the Wind Chill Warned regions, especially Tuesday through Thursday morning. This cold is nothing to mess around with as it will have detrimental effects to people (frostbite to exposed skin in 5 minutes or less) and livestock so definitely have a plan in place and make sure to limit as much time outdoors as possible. The western portions of SD will fare a little better in this event as these areas lay the furthest west from the lobe of the Polar Vortex. Regardless of this fact, expect wind chills in these parts to drop into the -10s and -20s Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Higher pressure will be the main story Tuesday night into Wednesday, shunting or suppressing most precipitation risks away from the area. However, a weak wave of energy will likely spawn a few pockets of snow showers in the western Dakotas early Wednesday morning that gradually fades soon after initiation that same morning. Most of this activity will have either progressed south of the region or faded by lunchtime Wednesday.
Model guidance has toned down from the already light amounts it had suggested from earlier in the day for this weak pulse of energy Wednesday morning. Pockets of 0.5″ or less of snow are likely in the western Dakotas, but many places will stay dry with little in the way of measurable snow.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!