Good morning everyone! The beginnings of our next potent storm system is making its way through the central portions of ND as of 8:20am CST. A warmer influx of air along the snows western periphery is allowing for some light freezing rain to fall in the western third of ND. This is only the start of a very snowy and blustery day across a good chunk of the region as the storm system progresses southeastward and adds additional heavy snow to eastern ND into central/southeastern MN with time. Regarding temperatures, it is once again another very cold morning in the far eastern Dakotas into MN with at least -10s being prevalent across these areas. However, looking at northern MN we will find temperatures at the current time in the -30s with wind chills lower than that. If you are looking for a break in the cold, it won’t come over the next several days as more arctic air will spill into the region, especially mid-week (more on this in the 4-panels).
We have a very colorful weather hazards map to present to you today ranging from High Wind Warnings in the western half of the Dakotas, Blizzard Warnings in eastern ND/northeastern SD, Winter Storm Warnings from northwestern to southeastern MN and Winter Weather Advisories north and south of the Winter Storm Warned area. Winds will be a massive problem today in the western Dakotas while snow coverage building west of these areas will lead to reduced visibilities and blow/drifting snow. Travel will be seriously restricted as the day goes on into tonight, especially east.
Our main wave of concern will come in the form of a very potent clipper system that digs southeastward through the area today, resulting in a band of heavy snow along its eastern periphery from eastern ND into western/southern MN. This system has a high likelihood of putting down a swath of 6-10″+ of snow accumulation as temperatures where the snow falls will be far below freezing and lead to high-ratio snows. Shown below is a map depicting frontogenesis and warm air advection, both of which provide ample lift in an environment. The circled region below has both of these traits at 6pm CST Sunday in which a heavier band of snow will likely position from eastern ND through central MN.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Monday: Snows currently located in central ND will work south and eastward through the remainder of the morning into the eastern Dakotas. Snow coverage will be approaching the western MN border with the Dakotas around 11am CST and adds snow into western MN through the afternoon and additionally central/southern MN by mid-afternoon. By 6pm CST this evening, a band of moderate to heavy snow will likely be situated across eastern ND, far northeastern SD and central/southern MN with more scattered snow coverage in western ND and rain at times in central SD. Progressing through the night, the system will be working southeastward and start to pull the heavier snows out of the Dakotas while some banding continues for most in MN (excluding far northeastern). However, still note areas of snow showers will persist tonight across the Dakotas while the steadier snows in eastern/southeastern MN will be starting to lift out. Pockets of snow showers/flurries will remain through Monday morning across the area, but the better chances will reside in the western Dakotas and locations where snow hangs on in southeastern MN.
Here’s the latest map regarding snowfall with the storm system through Monday morning: A swath of 6-10″+ of snow is expected in eastern ND southeastward through central and southeastern MN. Localized 12″ amounts if not more are not out of the question in central and southeastern MN given the stout frontogenesis signal. A sharp temperature gradient setting up northwest to southeast across the Dakotas will result in far less snow as you head west. Also, far northeastern MN remains too far northeast of the track to have much in the way of heavy impacts. Blizzard conditions are expected for many in the eastern Dakotas due to very strong wind gusts (resulting in reduced visibilities and blowing/drifting snow) and near blizzard conditions further east into western/southern MN. Travel is not recommended during this event as most roads will become snow-covered and near impassable.
Following this potent storm system will come squalls of snow flurries/showers across the Dakotas through the remainder of MN, likely clipping western MN in the process Monday evening and night. These squalls will slowly sag southward Monday night and by Tuesday morning will be focused mainly in SD. Most other areas will be drying out by Tuesday afternoon as forcing becomes less prevalent.
Here’s a look at snowfall after the clipper system from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning: Not everyone will see snow squalls as they will be scattered in nature. However, most have the opportunity for an additional ~0.5″ or so with localized pockets that observe the heavier bursts of snow approaching 2″+ (mainly in the western Dakotas). One location by the end of this timeframe may have received no snow will another location a few miles down the road could have received 1″+. That’s the nature of snow squalls.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: The bulk of the precipitation shown below comes through Monday morning, likely putting down 0.25-0.5″ of liquid in the process across ND, northeastern SD and the southern two-thirds of MN. After this system passes, we still note an upper-air pattern that is supportive of clipper systems advancing through the region, but will be more limited in moisture.
High/low temperatures over the next four days: The cold airmass will remain in place through the weekend and only be enhanced mid-week as a lobe of the Polar Vortex tracks southward into the Great Lakes region. Highs today in northeastern ND into northern MN likely won’t make it out of the negatives with lows dropping even further in these areas tonight. Monday will be the most mild day we’ve seen in several days, but that’s just relative as single digits for highs will remain in the eastern Dakotas into MN. Watch Tuesday for the next serious blast of arctic air to arrive that lingers through at least Thursday morning. Daytime highs will struggle to rise above the -10s in the eastern Dakotas into MN while Wednesday and Thursday mornings will drop into the -30s for many locations in the aforementioned areas.
Wind chill forecast over the next four mornings: Brutal arctic air will remain the big story through the period as wind chills in the -20s and -30s will be prevalent Monday and Tuesday morning across MN and the eastern Dakotas. Wednesday morning will likely be the coldest morning in years with wind chills dropping into the -40s and -50s. These temperatures and wind chills will be extremely dangerous to not only you but also your livestock. Definitely take the necessary precautions as the cold air we’ve experienced thus far will only be enhanced come Wednesday morning.
Winds over the next four days: As the storm system dives southeastward into the area today, winds will pick up quite dramatically. Blizzard conditions are expected in eastern ND and northeastern SD this afternoon through Monday morning given winds gusting to 40mph+ while near blizzard conditions will be possible at times in western/southern MN. Enhanced gusts of 45-50mph+ are expected through Monday morning in the western Dakotas (where High Wind Warnings have been issued). Winds won’t be as gusty come Tuesday, but still note breezy conditions that will definitely lower wind chills values.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 15 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!