Good morning everyone! We’re watching some pesky snow showers working across portions of eastern NE, western IA, northeastern KS and northwestern MO (as of 9:50am CST) that are associated with the very beginning of the incoming storm system that will bring snow accumulations to the far northeastern portions of the region later today into tonight. Elsewhere, some patchy freezing drizzle can be noted in central KS while a weak wave of light snow showers is progressing across southeastern MO.
Here are the latest weather hazards across the region: High Wind Warnings have been issued for the northern half of NE where winds later today through Monday will likely howl 40-50mph+. Further east across portions of southeastern NE and western IA, Wind Advisories are in effect with strong winds anticipated in these areas as well. Winter Storm Warnings are in place across northeastern IA where the potential for 6″+ of snow resides while lighter amounts further south have allowed the National Weather Service to issued Winter Weather Advisories for east-central and northwestern IA (just north of Des Moines).
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Monday: Light, scattered snows working across eastern NE into western IA will slowly fizzle and combine with the stronger storm system diving southeastward from the Northern Plains late this afternoon into the evening. Snows will start to gain coverage first across northwestern IA by 4pm CST and gradually the remainder of the northeastern half of IA through the evening hours. Warmer air on the south side of this system will allow for a warm nose of air and the likelihood of some patchy freezing rain in western/southern IA before quickly clearing out overnight. A thin corridor of light rain extending southwest from the wave is likely to traverse through far eastern NE, eastern KS, southwestern IA and a majority of MO overnight. The snows will be heavy at times in northeastern IA due to large-scale warm air advection coupled with frontogenesis (helps provide lift and the development of snow). One thing to note is that lower visibilities and blowing/drifting snow will be common due to the breezier conditions working into the area. During the morning hours Monday, backside snows will be likely across IA (though slowly losing coverage and intensity) while scattered bursts of flurries/snow showers will become more frequent starting late tonight through Monday morning in northern NE. These scattered bursts could make it as far south as KS. By the end of this loop (12pm CST Monday), the bulk of the snow will be done in IA with some light snow showers lingering in northeastern MO and eastern IA.
Here’s the latest snowfall graphic through Monday morning: Northeastern IA (Mason City and points north and east) has the greatest threat for 6-10″+ of snow from the potent storm system working in. Snow totals will quickly drop off further south and west of this area, with locations such as Davenport right on the edge with 1-3″ possible. Des Moines likely observes less than 1″ of snow total. Most of NE, KS and MO misses out from this event due to overriding warmth and the track remaining north and east of these locations, but don’t be surprised to witness snow showers Monday morning in northern NE and northeastern MO.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST Monday through 6pm CST Tuesday: With an arctic airmass building into the region after this storm system passes, expect some of the residual moisture in the atmosphere to be squeezed out and linger scattered bursts of snow across northern NE and western IA through the remainder of Monday and Monday night. This activity will slowly work south and eastward, bringing scattered light snow chances Tuesday to the remainder of NE as well as southern IA, northern MO and northeastern KS.
Here’s a look at snowfall after the storm system from Monday evening through the day Tuesday: Not everyone will see snow squalls as they will be scattered in nature. However, there will be opportunities for select spots to pick up anywhere from 0.5″ to as much as 2″ in northern NE towards the Omaha area to northern MO. It should be noted that one location will receive no snow will another location a few miles down the road could have received 0.5″+. That’s the nature of snow squalls. Most of KS and the southern half of MO, however, will receive little to no accumulation.
Here’s a look at total precipitation over the next 7 days: Most of the precipitation shown below comes through Monday as the storm system progresses across the northeastern/eastern portions of the region. Additional precipitation risks will mostly come in the form of light clipper systems through the coming week. Some areas in western KS may also receive little to no measurable precipitation.
High temperatures over the next four days: It’ll be a tale of two worlds from west to east across the region as highs in the 50s are likely in the High Plains while single digits and teens are expected into IA. Monday won’t be so kind as colder air funneling in behind the storm system will drop high temperatures for most below freezing. A lobe of the Polar Vortex will dig into the Great Lakes region mid-week and usher in cold Canadian air into the northeastern portions of the region. Daytime highs come Wednesday may not make it out of the -10s in northeastern IA.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Lows in the 30s south and teens north will be prevalent Monday morning before very cold overnight lows work into the northeastern half of the region Tuesday and especially Wednesday/Thursday morning. Many in IA will dip into the -20s for lows Wednesday and Thursday morning.
Wind chill forecast over the next four mornings: Wind chills below zero will be common in northeastern NE into IA the next two mornings. However, Wednesday morning will have the worst of the cold as wind chills likely drop towards -30ºF in eastern NE/far northern MO and around -50ºF across IA. -40ºF wind chills are expected to persist in the eastern half of IA come Thursday morning. This is extremely dangerous cold coming so definitely have a plan in place for any livestock as this will have detrimental impacts.
Wind forecast over the next four days: With the storm system clipping the northeastern portions of the area later today into tonight, watch for winds to really increase in intensity across the area, especially in NE where High Wind Warnings are in effect. Gusts in these parts will likely exceed 40mph at times just into this evening with further intensities of gusts likely tonight into Monday (50mph+). Breezy conditions in IA will lead to blowing and drifting snow tonight into Monday which will further enhance any headaches caused by the snow (emphasis on northeastern portions of the state). Further reductions in wind chills should also be expected.
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!