Good morning everyone! A few waves of snow continue to impact portions of SD, especially the western areas, and again in southern MN. The pulse of snow in southern MN and northern IA will lift eastward through the day while repeated areas of energy in the western Dakotas will keep snow showers around through the course of the day. Regarding temperatures, most in northeastern ND into a majority of MN have woken up to temperatures below 0ºF once again. The coldest air in the region resides in northeastern MN where temperatures as of 9:25am CST are as low as -30ºF.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Sunday: The wave of light snow across southern MN continues its progression eastward through the day, gradually departing the southeastern portions of the state between 4-5pm CST. Back west into the western Dakotas, anticipate additional rounds of upper-level energy to promote the continuation of snow showers through the day that start to push eastward into the central Dakotas this evening. By Sunday morning, areas of light snow will be located in the eastern Dakotas while mixed precipitation (including rain showers) is expected across the western Dakotas with sufficient amounts of warm air working in, likely resulting in temperatures rising just above freezing.
Here’s a look at additional snowfall through tonight: Favoring western/central ND into central SD for an additional 1-2″ of snow. Further east, forcing will be more limited with snow coverage remaining more scattered and mostly in southern MN, so accumulations should remain less than 1″. Northern MN during this time will largely remain dry.
The main wave of concern will come in the form of a potent clipper system that will dig southeastward into the area Sunday, resulting in a band of snow along its eastern periphery in the eastern Dakotas (especially eastern ND) into western and southern MN. This system will have a high likelihood of putting down a swath of 6″+ of snow accumulation as temperatures where the snow falls will be far below freezing and lead to high-ratio snows. Shown below is a map depicting frontogenesis and warm air advection, both of which provide ample lift in an environment. The circled region below has both of these traits at 6pm CST Sunday in which a band of heavier snow will likely position from eastern ND into central MN.
This wave enters and picks up moderate to heavy snow into central ND starting early Sunday morning and works south and eastward through the remainder of the morning across the eastern Dakotas. Snow coverage will be approaching the western MN border with the Dakotas around 8am CST and adds snows into western MN through the morning and additionally southern MN by early afternoon. By 6pm CST Sunday, a band of moderate to heavy snow will likely be situated across eastern ND, northeastern SD and central/southeastern MN with more scattered snow coverage in western ND and rain at times in central SD. Progressing through Sunday night, the system will be working southeastward and start to pull the heavier snows out of the Dakotas while banding continues for a majority in MN (excluding far north). However, still note areas of snow showers will persist Sunday night across the Dakotas. Working into Monday morning, lighter snow showers will remain scattered in coverage across the Dakotas while the steadier snows in eastern/southeastern MN will be starting to lift out. Pockets of snow showers/flurries will remain through the remainder of Monday across the area but the best chances for theses remaining will be in the western Dakotas.
Here’s the latest map regarding total snowfall with Sunday into Monday morning’s storm system: A swath of 6-10″+ of snow is expected in eastern ND southeastward through central and southeastern MN. Localized 12″ amounts are not out of the question in southeastern MN. A sharp temperature gradient will setup northwest to southeast across the Dakotas, resulting in snow totals decreasing as you head west and south across these states. Also, northeastern MN remains too far northeast of the track to have much in the way of heavy impacts. As noted in yesterday’s updates, blizzard-like conditions will be possible in the eastern Dakotas into western/southern MN Sunday afternoon through Monday morning as winds will gust upwards of 30mph at times, resulting in low visibilities and blowing/drifting snow. Travel is not recommended during this event as most roads will become snow-covered and hazardous. There is a caveat to this forecast as the European Model remains slightly further south than most other solutions, so it can’t be ruled out that the 6-10″+ corridor may be a tad too far north. The second image shows areas currently under a Winter Storm Watch for this incoming storm system as well as High Wind Watches (strong wind development expected as the system works through the region).
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: The bulk of the precipitation shown below comes through the storm system Sunday into Monday morning, likely putting down 0.25-0.75″ of liquid in the process across ND, northeastern SD and the southern two-thirds of MN. After this system passes, we still note an upper-air pattern that is supportive of clipper systems advancing through the region, but will be more limited in moisture.
High/low temperatures over the next four days: The cold airmass will remain in place through the weekend into early work week with the eastern Dakotas into MN remaining well below 0ºF (likely surpassing -20ºF in northern MN) heading into Sunday morning. Winds should be rather variable in these areas Sunday morning, but any slight breezes will drop wind chills between -30 to -45ºF (the coldest wind chills most likely in northern MN). There will be some recovery in temperatures Sunday night, but still note lows will fall below 0ºF for most of ND into northern MN. Another cold blast of air arrives Monday night through Tuesday night and beyond with widespread negatives for many Monday night and -20s in the eastern Dakotas into MN Tuesday night.
Winds over the next four days: The gustiest winds through tonight will be situated in the western Dakotas where gusts of 25-30mph will be common. Watch for blowing snow in these areas along with reduced visibilities. As the stronger storm system dives southeastward into the area Sunday, winds will pick up quite dramatically east of the aforementioned areas. Near blizzard conditions will be possible at times Sunday afternoon into Monday morning across the eastern Dakotas into western/southern MN as gusts to 30mph are likely at times. Enhanced wind gusts of 45-50mph will be possible at times Sunday afternoon through Monday morning in the Western Dakotas (where High Wind Watches have been issued).
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 15 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!